Soccer Dad

Is obama carter, but without the good fortune?

In his devastating critique of ex-President Jimmy Carter, Our Worse Ex-President, Joshua Muravchik wrote:

Carter's interest in the conflict is in one sense natural: the agreement he mediated between Israel and Egypt at Camp David in 1978 stands as one of the few solid achievements of his presidency. Yet the intensity of his rhetoric suggests that his absorption with this issue derives from something deeper than the pleasure of returning to the scene of past triumphs.

Generally, the Camp David treaty is considered the major accomplishment of Carter's term in office. Yet, as Jason Maoz recounts, the impetus for Sadat going to the Jerusalem was a miscalculation by Carter.

Standing out among Carter's flubs was his decision to issue a joint statement on the Middle East with the Soviet Union. This totally unexpected document, released on October 1, 1977, marked the first time the U.S. officially employed the phrase "legitimate rights of the Palestinian people."

The communiqué also recommended the conveying of an Arab-Israel peace conference in Geneva, with the participation of Palestinian representatives and with the Americans and the Soviets acting as joint guarantors of any agreement that might be reached.

Reaction in the U.S. was immediate - and furious. "[A] political firestorm erupted," wrote Middle East expert Steven Spiegel. "After American officials had worked successfully for years to reduce Russian influence over the Mideast peace process and in the area as whole, critics could not understand why the administration had suddenly invited Moscow to return."

If there was anyone more incensed at Carter than the Israelis and most American lawmakers, it was Anwar Sadat. It had been just five years since the Egyptian leader stunned the world by unceremoniously expelling thousands of Soviet military advisers and their families from Egypt, his most concrete signal to date of his desire to align his country with the West.

Yet Carter ignored Sadat's break with Moscow. A number of other factors came into play and ...

Eventually, of course, the U.S. would broker what became known as the Camp David accords and oversee the signing of the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty. But Carter had been blindsided by Sadat, with the compliance of Begin, in response to the American president's inexplicable decision to involve the Soviets in the peace process.

Well once again, as Barry Rubin writes, the Russians are getting involved in the Middle East.

Russia's bid for renewed power in the Middle East as a rival to U.S. goals and interests is one more thing that U.S. policy is simply not prepared to cope with, or even recognize. Will Russia align itself to a large extent with Iran and Syria to counter U.S. influence in the region and give itself special access to key trading partners? For if Moscow teams up with the radical Islamist alliance, especially after Tehran has nuclear weapons, this is going to worsen considerably an already gloomy strategic picture for the West.

But on top of all that, Russian Foreign Minister Serge Lavrov made an incredible statement that should send shock waves through U.S. policymaking circles. In calling on the United States not to take "any unilateral step against Iran," Lavrov is trying to restrict American pressures to what Moscow is willing to accept. In other words, he is acting as Iran's lawyer to tie America's hands.

This isn't the same as inviting the Russians in, however the Obama adminstration hasn't complained as the Russians have been expanding their influence in the Middle East and allying itself with those who are fighting American interests.

Unfortunately, it doesn't appear that a comparable situation exists to the one that existed in 1977, when a poorly conceived American effort convinced Egypt to make peace with Israel. Maybe the new Russian alliance will serve to move the Iraqis closer to the United States, but I don't see how it will advance th cause of stability in the Middle East.

So in the Middle East, right now President Obama looks like Jimmy Carter, but without the stroke of good fortune.

Crossposted on Yourish.