Soccer Dad

Just fears

I don't agree with a number of his premises, but Carlos Strenger makes two important points in Israel's Just Fears of a Palestinian State.

What would Israel's situation be after withdrawing from the West Bank to the 1967 borders? All major population centres of Israel would be in range of Katyushas. These rockets were sufficiently destructive to bring life in northern Israel to a complete standstill when Hezbollah fired large numbers of them into Israel during the second Lebanon war in 2006. If Israel is attacked from the West Bank, the impact will be devastating, and Israel will have no choice but to react forcefully - and as a result will, once again, be the target of international condemnation.

Hence Israelis say "we are damned if we do and damned if we don't" - if Israel continues the occupation of large parts of the West Bank, it is under constant international criticism but at least it is relatively safe. If Israel withdraws from the West Bank, it will open itself to attacks from there, and any retaliation will lead to massive international condemnation. Ergo, many Israelis think, it is preferable to maintain the status quo, unpalatable as it is.

The second issue is the lack of clarity as to whether Fayyad and the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, represent all Palestinians: there are currently two governments, with Hamas ruling Gaza. Hence Israelis ask whether anything signed by the Palestinian Authority that is de facto Fatah will in any way bind Hamas, which has already rejected previous agreements with Israel.

Israelis justifiably ask: what if Hamas wins the general election again? Israel will be open to attacks from the West Bank by a government whose charter includes rabid antisemitic rants from the Protocols of the Elders of Zion, and which is currently armed and influenced by Iran, whose president keeps reiterating that Israel needs to be wiped off the map of the Middle East.

Crossposted on Yourish