Soccer Dad

It's the speeches, stupid

Unfortunately, I can't excerpt this, because it's a photograph, but the Washington Post presents Obama's six month report card. The scholars from the Brooking's Institution who graded the President wrote that his "... greatest accomplishment so far has been to reestablish public trust and optimism." Then the Brookings scholars lay out poll numbers comparing public perceptions or the current administration with those of the previous five.

But the numbers as interpreted don't necessarily tell the same story. For example, the first line gives the defense budget in 2009 dollars. According to the chart defense spending, using this measure, decline from President George H. W. Bush, to President Bill Clinton to President George W. Bush. And for President Obama, it rose sharply. This raises the question, did the enthusiasm over the "peace diividend" blind previous administrations to the threats to the United States? If so, it might explain the Bush administration's "Bush administration's arrogance and unilateralism" that David Ignatius derides. After 9/11 President Bush saw a more dangerous world than had been perceived by his predecessors and sought to confront the previously ignored threats. Maybe the unilateralism was necessary and President Obama's new era of good feeling is a sign of retreat.

The President graders note that there have been many more American military casualties in President Obama's first six months than in the first six months of any of the previous five administrations. But they also note that there are fewer armed conflicts and civilian casualties than in those previous administrations. Did the unilateral use of American force have anything to do with that? Or is it perhaps independent of American involvement?

And while it's true that President Obama inherited a recession, some numbers like the unemployment rate and the percentage of public debt as part of GDP have increased sharply. The problem is that the stimulus bill that added to the debt was supposed to halt the unemployment rate increased the debt without halting the job loss. Is it any reason that consumer confidence is down?

In fact after eight years of the George W. Bush presidency, slightly fewer non-elderly are without medical insurance than were after after eight years of Bill Clinton's presidency, and yet President Obama made health care reform a central goal of his presidency.

Finally in the last line of the report card we see the difference between Democratic and Republican presidential approval ratings. It is now at 65%. This number has trended up since Jimmy Carter when the number was only 30%. I've long scoffed at the notion that our politics is more polarized than ever before. But this number shows that perhaps I've been wrong. I don't see this as a result of Obama's presidency. But it does raise the question as to whether the inrease in public trust and optimism is universal or partisan. The President's approval rating among independents is only slightly higher than it was under his predecessor at this point, so it's hard to say that it's due to any quality that President Obama has or or policy he has adopted.

As Jim Hoagland's positive review of the Obama administration so far, or David Ignatius's cited above, this report card seemingly judges President Obama on his speechmaking not on his policies. In fact, the numbers the Brookings scholars bring to support their assessment suggest - they are too general to draw specific conclusions - that President Obama simply talks a good game. His popularity derives from his ability to speak well to other Democrats, not from any policy he has pursued. As President Obama's declining popularity attests (via Instapundit) good speeches are no substitute for effective policy.