July 17, 2009
Netanyahu's Stress On Economic Peace Plan Being Validated In West Bank
Earlier this month, talk about Netanyahu's Economic Peace Plan--the idea that upgrading the Palestinian economy takes precedence over talk of a second Palestinian state--was decidedly negative:
Prior
to the elections, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presented his
program for "economic peace," which he said would improved the quality
of life for Palestinians in the West Bank. However, 100 days after
having formed his coalition government, there is no practical progress
on economic projects.
The main reason for this is the refusal of
senior Palestinian Authority officials to cooperate with Netanyahu and
Vice Premier Silvan Shalom, who has been assigned the task of promoting
the "economic peace" initiative.
Yet, according to an article in yesterday's New York Times, the West Bank economy is experiences an amazing turnaround:
"You don't appreciate the value of law and order until you lose it," Rashid al-Sakhel, the owner of a carpet store, said as he stood in his doorway surveying the small wonder of bustling streets on a sunny morning. "For the past eight years, a 10-year-old boy could order a strike and we would all close. Now nobody can threaten us."
For the first time since the second Palestinian uprising broke out in late 2000, leading to terrorist bombings and fierce Israeli countermeasures, a sense of personal security and economic potential is spreading across the West Bank as the Palestinian Authority's security forces enter their second year of consolidating order.
The International Monetary Fund is about to issue its first upbeat report in years for the West Bank, forecasting a 7 percent growth rate for 2009. Car sales in 2008 were double those of 2007. Construction on the first new Palestinian town in decades, for 40,000, will begin early next year north of Ramallah. In Jenin, a seven-story store called Herbawi Home Furnishings has opened, containing the latest espresso machines. Two weeks ago, the Israeli military shut its obtrusive nine-year-old checkpoint at the entrance to this city, part of a series of reductions in security measures.
This is something that was already evident last year, and has clearly been progressing this year. And the best part of the economic turnaround is that it is leading to a political turnaround as well:
Whether all this can last and lead to the consolidation of political power for the Fatah-dominated Palestinian Authority based in Ramallah, as the Obama administration hopes, remains unclear. But a recent opinion poll in the West Bank and Gaza by the Jerusalem Media and Communications Center, a Palestinian news agency, found that Fatah was seen as far more trustworthy than Hamas -- 35 percent versus 19 percent -- a significant shift from the organization's poll in January, when Hamas appeared to be at least as trustworthy.
"Two years ago I couldn't have even gone to Nablus," said Tony Blair, the former British prime minister who serves as international envoy to the Palestinians, after a smooth visit this week. "Security is greatly improved, and the economy is doing much better. Now we need to move to the next stage: politics."
The aim of American and European policy is to stitch Palestinian politics back together by strengthening the Palestinian Authority under the presidency of Mahmoud Abbas, which favors a two-state solution with Israel, while weakening the Islamists of Hamas, who rule in Gaza. Fatah says it will hold its first general congress in 20 years in early August to build on its successes, but it remains unclear if the meeting will take place.
As important as the turnaround of Fatah vis-a-vis Hamas may be, equally important is the claim made in the article that both the US and Europe want not only to strengthen Fatah, but also to weaken Hamas as well--that seems to go against indications that both the US and Europe were interested not only in opening dialog with Hamas, but also to waive the '3 preconditions': recognizing Israel, stopping terrorist attacks, and honoring past agreements. If the renewed West Bank economy and the rise in Fatah's fortunes lead to the isolation of Hamas on the international scene, that would be an added benefit.
The reason for the entire turnaround goes back to the basics in dealing with Palestinian terrorism:
Asked to explain why the West Bank's fortunes were shifting, a top Israeli general began his narrative with a chart showing 410 Israelis killed by Palestinians in 2002, and 4 in 2008.
"We destroyed the terrorist groups through three things -- intelligence, the barrier and freedom of action by our men," he said, speaking on condition of anonymity in keeping with military rules. "We sent our troops into every marketplace and every house, staying tightly focused on getting the bad guys."
This is a validation of something that was said in 2001 by then British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw about comparing negotiations with the IRA and with the Palestinian Arabs:
of course, negotiations far, far better, not (ph) infinitely better, than military action.
As far as Northern Ireland is concerned, we welcome hugely the progress has been made following the Good Friday Agreement.
It also has to be said that, before that happened, there had to be a change of approach by those who saw terrorism at the answer. And that approach partly changed because of the firmness of the military and police response to that terrorism. And if there had not been that firm response by successive British governments and others to the terrorist threat that was posed on both sides, we would not have been able to get some of those people into negotiation, and we'd not be marking what is a satisfactory day in the history of Northern Ireland today.
If the West Bank really does experience an economic and cultural revival, it will be because Israel defeated the Intifada and suicide bombers and the thinking that went along with it--because the West surely hasn't.
by Daled Amos Posted by daledamos at July 17, 2009 11:04 AM
Why Does The Goldstone Commission Report Rely On Contradicting Testimony?
On a foundation of sand
Kemp vs. goldstone
The Goldstone Commission: A Funny Thing Happened On The Way To Gaza
Garlasco hits the fan
Israel deploys WorldNetDaily against Iran!
Have you forgotten?
Slapping the outstretched hand
Turki stuffing
Fadlallah clarifies that Israel's existence is the issue
Toughness defeated the Soviet Union.The Palestinians will cross their own Rubicon only when they have no other choice. Giving them what they want on a silver platter won't make that happen.
Posted by: NormanF at July 17, 2009 5:58 PM
The main reason for this is the refusal of senior Palestinian Authority officials to cooperate with Netanyahu and Vice Premier Silvan Shalom, who has been assigned the task of promoting the "economic peace" initiative
NormanF - I strongly disagree that toughness defeated the Soviet Union. Intelligence and strategy defeated the Soviet Union. Specifically, the mujahedeen in Afghanistan and Waziristan defeated the Soviet Union using weapons and money from the U.S. and Britain. I'm not sure that bodes well for the West in its current struggle against the mujahedeen in Afghanistan and Waziristan, but it does show that a strategy based on solid intel and political realities on the ground is far better than brute force.
This article really supports my own conviction that the driving force behind the global jihad is not a religious one, but an economic and cultural one. Military strikes cannot build, only destroy and in the aftermath of that destruction (ie Gaza, prohibited from importing construction materials) the spread radical militancy is catalyzed. When people have nothing but their pride, they will defend their pride at all costs. If you give them opportunity, security, and a voice, you will receive moderation in return. To see this in action, just look at the Israeli-Arabs. They are discriminated against in building codes and law enforcement as well as in basic services of the state like sanitation, utilities, roads, and schools. They are in the same position as blacks were under the Jim Crow laws, but they are generally happy to be second-class citizens in an inherently racist "Jewish State" because they still have greater security and opportunity than their brothers and sisters in the occupied territories. Is their treatment unjust and deserving of universal condemnation? Yes. Are they in a better situation than those in Gaza and the West Bank? Yes.
Posted by: Samayavajra at July 19, 2009 9:42 AMThey are discriminated against in building codes and law enforcement as well as in basic services of the state like sanitation, utilities, roads, and schools.
This was already addressed in part in my response to your comment 5 days ago. The statistics do not back up the claim.
The general issue of being second class citizens, of the "economic and cultural" force behind jihad and your claim "If you give them opportunity, security, and a voice, you will receive moderation in return" is countered by history, as described by historian Efraim Karsh:
In the economic sphere, most of this progress was the result of access to the far larger and more advanced Israeli economy: the number of Palestinians working in Israel rose from zero in 1967 to 66,000 in 1975 and 109,000 by 1986, accounting for 35 percent of the employed population of the West Bank and 45 percent in Gaza. Close to 2,000 industrial plants, employing almost half of the work force, were established in the territories under Israeli rule.
During the 1970's, the West Bank and Gaza constituted the fourth fastest-growing economy in the world-ahead of such "wonders" as Singapore, Hong Kong, and Korea, and substantially ahead of Israel itself. Although GNP per capita grew somewhat more slowly, the rate was still high by international standards, with per-capita GNP expanding tenfold between 1968 and 1991 from $165 to $1,715 (compared with Jordan's $1,050, Egypt's $600, Turkey's $1,630, and Tunisia's $1,440). By 1999, Palestinian per-capita income was nearly double Syria's, more than four times Yemen's, and 10 percent higher than Jordan's (one of the better off Arab states). Only the oil-rich Gulf states and Lebanon were more affluent.
Under Israeli rule, the Palestinians also made vast progress in social welfare. Perhaps most significantly, mortality rates in the West Bank and Gaza fell by more than two-thirds between 1970 and 1990, while life expectancy rose from 48 years in 1967 to 72 in 2000 (compared with an average of 68 years for all the countries of the Middle East and North Africa). Israeli medical programs reduced the infant-mortality rate of 60 per 1,000 live births in 1968 to 15 per 1,000 in 2000 (in Iraq the rate is 64, in Egypt 40, in Jordan 23, in Syria 22). And under a systematic program of inoculation, childhood diseases like polio, whooping cough, tetanus, and measles were eradicated.
No less remarkable were advances in the Palestinians' standard of living. By 1986, 92.8 percent of the population in the West Bank and Gaza had electricity around the clock, as compared to 20.5 percent in 1967; 85 percent had running water in dwellings, as compared to 16 percent in 1967; 83.5 percent had electric or gas ranges for cooking, as compared to 4 percent in 1967; and so on for refrigerators, televisions, and cars.
Finally, and perhaps most strikingly, during the two decades preceding the intifada of the late 1980's, the number of schoolchildren in the territories grew by 102 percent, and the number of classes by 99 percent, though the population itself had grown by only 28 percent. Even more dramatic was the progress in higher education. At the time of the Israeli occupation of Gaza and the West Bank, not a single university existed in these territories. By the early 1990's, there were seven such institutions, boasting some 16,500 students. Illiteracy rates dropped to 14 percent of adults over age 15, compared with 69 percent in Morocco, 61 percent in Egypt, 45 percent in Tunisia, and 44 percent in Syria.
All this, as I have noted, took place against the backdrop of Israel's hands-off policy in the political and administrative spheres
You hedge your bets by claiming that Israeli Arabs do better than those in Gaza and the West Bank--yet are second class citizens. This is similar to your claim that Hamas is alternatively a terrorist group and a valid government depending on the tactics they choose to use on a given day.
Posted by: Daled Amos at July 19, 2009 11:51 AMBTW, the documentation backing up what Karsh says is provided by the World Bank, which in 1993 published "Developing The Occupied Territories: An Investment In Peace." You can read it on Google.
I also have copies of a couple of the charts from that book in a post of mine here.
Posted by: Anonymous at July 19, 2009 12:05 PM