Soccer Dad

Ransom inflation

After Iran released Roxana Saberi in May, Michael Ledeen wondered what was the ransom.

Why does the Mafia release hostages? Because they have collected the ransom. So to all those who are looking for subtle reasons for the Saberi release, take it from someone who has been there. Iran collected its ransom. The mullahs aren't subtle, they're mafiosi. We probably won't know for a while what they got, who delivered it, and who worked the deal. But anyone familiar with the workings of the Islamic Republic has to assume that there was a payoff.

The price seems to be climbing.

The U.S. military on Thursday released five Iranian officials who were detained in January 2007 in northern Iraq on suspicion of aiding Iraqi Shiite militants, Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari and Iranian officials said. ... Iranian leaders have repeatedly demanded the release of the officials, calling their detention by U.S. forces a kidnapping that violated diplomatic protocols. At the time, U.S. authorities said the men included the operations chief and other members of Iran's elite Quds Force, which was accused of arming and training Iraqi militants. Officials in Washington and Baghdad maintained the men had no diplomatic status.

Andrew McCarthy lists the reasons (via memeorandum) why this release is a mistake, including:

Obama's decision to release the five terror-masters comes while the Iranian regime (a) is still conducting operations against Americans in Iraq, even as we are in the process of withdrawing, and (b) is clearly working to replicate its Lebanon model in Iraq: establishing a Shiite terror network, loyal to Iran, as added pressure on the pliant Maliki to understand who is boss once the Americans leave.

Bill Roggio reports that at least one military official objected:

As power is transferred back to the Iraqi government, the US will continue to release the Iranian and Hezbollah agents captured in Iraq.

US intelligence officials who directly deal with the Iranian threat in Iraq are dismayed by the release of the Qods Force agents, and say the release of more is in the pipeline.

"If you didn't like the release of Laith and the Irbil Five, you'd better get used to it," one official told The Long War Journal in disgust.

"We worked hard to catch these bastards, now we're cutting them loose with little thought to the consequences of doing this."

Daled Amos observes:

Even assuming that Obama would not go that far, the lengths he is willing to go to be granted the privilege of talking with Iran do not bode well for what will be required of Israel when negotiations start in earnest.