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June 11, 2009
An iranian strike - the consequences
Two years ago Daniel Pipes wrote about an assessment of the feasibility of an Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear facilities, Israeli jets vs. Iranian nukes. He found the assessment compelling. Later Dr. Pipes wrote about another study that considered the The Unthinkable Consequences of an Iran-Israel Nuclear Exchange. The short description is that Israel would be badly hurt and that Iran would be in even worse shape.
Today John Bolton takes to the WSJ to consider the possible retaliations Iran would take if Israel destroyed its nuclear program in What if Israel strikes Iran?. Bolton considers six possibilities; the one he considers most likely is that Iran would use Hezbollah and Hamas to strike at Israel. Despite the apocalyptic rhetoric of Iran's leaders, I find it interesting that Bolton finds it most plausible that Iran would use Hamas and Hezbollah to strike at Israel. Barry Rubin similarly predicted that if Iran acquired nuclear weapons, its most likely strategy would be use them to project its influence.
Hezbollah in passive voice
A cynical and mistrusted offer
Wapo: peace process succeeding because of the great work of the administration
Council speak 100610
Nyt: peace process failing despite the great work of the administration
Do we have enough regulations yet?
Iranian General: "US, Mossad played roles in 9/11 event"
Absolving arafat, ten years later
Rahm can't run? antisemites!
The politics of peace
Whatever the consequences of an Israeli strike against Iran, they pale in comparison to accepting a nuclear-armed Iran. With or without American approval (and with Obama, certainly without), there is no other option. The real question is do our leaders have the guts to do it? I am hoping they do.
Posted by: Terry, Eilat - Israel at June 11, 2009 7:15 AMTerry, the consequences of attacking Iran are likely to be insignificant and manageable. In contrast, a nuclear Iran would have dire consequences for Israel that can't be foreseen today and the worst thing would be the uncertainty. And that's the one thing I don't think Israel can resign itself to - ever.
Posted by: NormanF at June 11, 2009 12:37 PM