May 15, 2009

The coming confrontation?

For now I'm going to persist in my illusion that Binyamin Netanyahu and Barack Obama are not headed for a major showdown next week when they meet.

Steve Rosen wrote:

The commentariat and the blogs are full of predictions that Obama and Netanyahu are headed for a clash when they meet on May 18, or soon after. These predictions are coming from pundits on the left, who imagine that U.S. pressure on Israel is the magical key to peace, and many on the right, who think the Obama team is dominated by the naive left and Arabists who know and care little about Israel's security.

I am betting against all of them. My prediction: while Obama and Netanyahu will have differences on the margins, they will find common ground on the main elements of a coordinated strategy for an initial period of 12-24 months.

I know that I'm at odds with a number of bloggers I'm friendly with. But isn't Obama surrounded by advisers who aren't especially fond of Israel? Yes, that's true. Doesn't the President come from a background that's hostile to Israel? Yes, that's true too.

And didn't the President just send a humiliating message to Israel demanding that Israel not strike Iran without informing him first? That I'm not so sure about. But it was reported in Ha'aretz! I'm not convinced that the message is as clear as Aluf Benn reported.

U.S. President Barack Obama has sent a message to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu demanding that Israel not surprise the U.S. with an Israeli military operation against Iran. The message was conveyed by a senior American official who met in Israel with Netanyahu, ministers and other senior officials. Earlier, Netanyahu's envoy visited Washington and met with National Security Adviser James Jones and with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and discussed the dialogue Obama has initiated with Tehran.

The message from the American envoy to the prime minister reveals U.S. concern that Israel could lose patience and act against Iran. It is important to the Americans that they not be caught off guard and find themselves facing facts on the ground at the last minute.

Obama did not wait for his White House meeting with Netanyahu, scheduled for next Monday, to deliver his message, but rather sent it ahead of time with his envoy.

Note what's going on. While I don't know if this is standard diplomatic protocol, it appears that both President Obama and PM Netanyahu had an advance man going over the particulars of their meeting. Note that the message was apparently a concern that was "revealed" by the administration's advance man.

I don't think that the administration's advance man leaked the message to Benn. So that means that he heard it from someone on the Israeli side. So would the Israelis have complained that they were dressed down by the President in advance of the meeting with Netanyahu next week? I'm skeptical. More likely, in the course of discussing the meeting with Benn, one of the Israelis commented that the possibility of an Israeli strike against Iran clearly concerned the administration. (How much someone from the advance team could reveal is unclear.) Benn worded the information he got in the most spectacular way, but the actual information that he learned was a lot more pedestrian.

Why do I think that it wasn't the administration leaking the supposed message that Aluf Benn reported? Because if it came from the United States why didn't either the NY Times or Washington Post report it? If the President issued a major rebuke to the PM, wouldn't that be newsworthy here? Yet neither reported that an Israeli paper reported this rebuke. (The Jerusalem Post, from what I can tell didn't report it either.)

The NY Times even had an article on the upcoming meeting, Israeli Leader to Meet Obama as U.S. Priorities Shift about the likely differences between Israel and the United States, especially regarding Iran and it didn't mention the warning. The article is worth looking at for a number of details, but it doesn't confirm Benn's report at all.


The last time Benjamin Netanyahu met an American president as Israel's new leader, in 1996, it did not go well. Mr. Netanyahu lectured President Bill Clinton about Arab-Israeli relations, aides recalled, driving Mr. Clinton into a profane outburst after his guest left.

Mr. Netanyahu is likely to avoid a repeat of that when he meets President Obama at the White House on Monday. But the underlying relationship between Israel and the United States has become more unsettled since Mr. Obama took office.

Left unmentioned is that during the Israeli campaign, Clinton held a "summit of the peacemakers" as a way of bolstering Shimon Peres's campaign against Netanyahu. Obama didn't interfere as blatantly in the recent Israeli elections.

The Times reports further:

Two weeks ago, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, Leon E. Panetta, held a quiet meeting with Mr. Netanyahu in Jerusalem. Israel asked the United States for benchmarks to demonstrate that its diplomatic campaign was working.

The Israeli government, officials said, has assured the United States that it will not take military action against Iran without first consulting Washington. But it has also signaled that it will give the United States only a year or so to show that its good-will approach is getting results.

This would appear to cover the ground about the differences between the United States and Israel regarding Iran. (It also appears that Iran doesn't have a year to convince the Americans, but only about five months.)

Even Robert Malley is quoted by the Times:

"There is potential for greater tensions than have existed for some time, certainly," said Robert Malley, another veteran of Middle East peacemaking efforts. "But a collision is not inevitable."

Presumably he's somewhat aware of the administration is planning and he doesn't necessarily see a conflict coming.

So why isn't a confrontation as likely this time around as it was thirteen years ago?

1) Netanyahu is more popular at home than he was in 1996.
2) American support for Israel against Iran is pretty strong.
3) Nearly sixteen years of bad faith since Oslo has rendered the IOI syndrome InOperatIve.
4) Despite Obama's leftist background, lately his foreign policy moves have belied his background as Victor Davis Hanson observes:

Consider also the dexterous Obama administration's own about-face. It still finds it useful to damn the old Bush government's embrace of wiretaps, military tribunals, and renditions -- even as it dares not drop or completely discount these apparently useful Bush policies, albeit under new names and with new qualifiers.

Maybe the administration will see an advantage to showing Israel more sympathy.

Still J-Street thinks that peace won't be achieved without American pressure (h/t My Right Word) And J-Street's partners in undermining Israel, the IPF, has gotten the names of several ambassadors attached to a letter (.pdf) they've written urging Israel to, among other things, get rid of superfluous checkpoints and urge the Palestinians to stop terror. Of course they also recommend rebuilding funds for Gaza, which will only serve to strengthen Hamas. But then this letter is recommended by someone who considers M. J. Rosenberg, one of the "best Middle East analysts," so take the recommendation with a grain of salt.

I hope I'm right that there will be no major friction between President Obama and PM Netanyahu. Obviously there is reason to expect differences. Hopefully despite their differing visions they will see the American-Israel alliance as more important than those differences.

UPDATE: Sammy Benoit makes a similar argument. Meryl too. It is pretty clear that Leon Panetta went to Israel a few weeks ago to ask that Israel not take the United States by surprise. Did Benn confuse that visit with last week's meeting? Eric Trager argues that demanding a veto over any attack against Iran weakens both the United States and Israel - regardless of when the guarantee was requested.

Crossposted on Yourish.

Posted by SoccerDad at May 15, 2009 5:58 AM
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Comments

I don't think there will be a confrontation. Israel has the right to go it alone if necessary and the days when Jews were only given orders will never return again. The world has a great deal of difficulty relating to a sovereign Jewish people and this is a new development for Israelis too, who have to unlearn Diaspora habits of submissiveness and placing one's fate in the hands of others. Nevertheless, for all of Israel's mistakes, the country remains a guarantee of Jewish survival. While Jew hatred has never disappeared, today the difference is the Jews are not helpless bystanders in their own drama. It is significant Obama had to ask the Israelis to put off an attack on Iran - he did not order them to. And while Obama is for a two state solution, he is not going to impose it upon Israel and he understands any imposed solution is destined for failure. In short, America and Israel will have differences of opinion but that is natural between friends and their alliance will survive. If Benjamin Netanyahu stands his ground next week, he will erase the perception of Israel as a country that's easy to push over if enough pressure is applied. The world may want Israel to follow the path every one else wants but as the Jews have demonstrated throughout history, they have been willing and will continue to pay the price to remain different from the nations around them.That is the reality that belies all the talk of a Bibi-Barak confrontation in vogue these days.

Posted by: NormanF at May 15, 2009 11:30 AM

of course there will be a confrontation,because this guy Obama is a closet muslim who is out to destroy western civilization and that includes israel

Posted by: chaim at May 15, 2009 12:11 PM

Netanyahu should say what he has to say, and do what he has to do

learn from Obama

Posted by: ploome at May 15, 2009 11:48 PM

Well, I hope you're wrong, to be quite frank. At the very least, I believe a conflict is inevitable simply because Netanyahu is too stubborn to accept a two-state solution. Personally, I'm not convinced that a two-state solution is a must-have: I'd be just as happy if the Israeli gov't officially annexed the West Bank and Gaza, gave all Palestinians living there Israeli citizenship, and dismantled the refugee camps by resettling the refugees as close to their original homes as possible without forcing anyone from their home.

In reality, however, peace is unlikely unless the U.S. stops treating the parties involved in an unequal manner and that is very, very unlikely because of the strangle-hold of groups like AIPAC on the elected officials of America. Any politician who advocates making the U.S. a truly "honest broker" risks being labeled as an anti-semite and black-listed by the powerful Israeli lobbies. Undoubtably, any differences will be minimized because Obama wants to be reelected in 2012. It infuriates me that the American gov't is now owned by the multinationals and zionists, but there's nothing I can do. I can't wait to leave this place, but it's so sad to see such a wonderful country hijacked by rich elitists and zionist pigs. It used to be a bright spot in an otherwise dark world. Now, it's the home of freedom-in-name-only and the capital of hypocrisy.

Posted by: construcivecritic at May 16, 2009 11:54 AM

By the way, I read the article on IOI syndrome because I didn't get the reference and it puzzles me how so many people can be so driven by irrational fear. Zionists and republicans are both one-trick ponies and the one trick is fear-mongering. If you stop thinking only in terms of absolutes, progress might happen. For example, the article raised the issue of Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Lebanon war was a success in that it elevated the clout of Hezbollah enough to make them a powerful political force and, by doing so, made them responsible for the results of their actions. Lebanon has not been a significant issue because Hezbollah now has to worry about its political future, which is not served by instigating another conflict or failing to prevent other militants from launching attacks. The same could easily be done with Hamas. All of this talk of allowing rebuilding funds and supplies into Gaza bolstering Hamas is absurd. The Israeli security situation would be best served by doing precisely that. Make Hamas be a political party. Insurrection is easy; governance is not. The same thing that happened in Lebanon could easily be done in Gaza. If the crossings are opened and Hamas is treated like a democratically-elected political party (which it is), it will be forced to fulfill the role of governor. As long as the Gazans are oppressed, hungry, and hopeless, Hamas has little to lose, but if the situation is transformed by making them truly political leaders, stopping attacks is in their interest.

The real myopic problem of Israelis is the fact that they refuse to acknowledge the reality of the political situation. Fatah is corrupt. It is seen as serving its own interests rather than those of the people and capitulating to the Israeli oppressors. Electing Hamas was similar to most elections because the people were given two terrible choices and picked the one that least sucked. Until Israel realizes that starving, oppressing, and murdering the Palestinian people creates terrorists, no peace will happen. My real fear, however, is that the leaders do realize this fact and actually exploit it by manipulating the conditions in favor of extremist groups like Hamas to ensure that they have plenty of excuses to avoid peace. I said at the time that Sharon's withdrawal from Gaza was a false fig leaf, intended to create a terrorist haven and escalate attacks, thus motivating the Israeli people to withdraw their support for a two-state solution. I hate being right so often.

Posted by: construcivecritic at May 16, 2009 12:20 PM

The country has been hijacked by rich arab-muslim pigs using their petro dollars to buy politicians in Washington, former officials from the State Department and other agencies who become paid pro-arab lobbyists after they leave government, provide money to universities to promote pro-muslim anti-Israel and anti-Semitic propaganda and to buy stakes in media outlets which distort news from the Middle East in a blatantly pro arab-muslim and anti-Israel manner. It is in fact the arab lobby with its unlimited financial resources and clout that has a stranglehold on the American government.

Posted by: Laura at May 16, 2009 12:29 PM

No peace will happen because muslims will not live in peace with anybody. Why do you think muslims are in conflict with their neighbors everywhere in the world? Because muslims, according to the koran must force infidels to convert, submit to islam or be killed. There is no living in peaceful coexistence with non-muslims.

Posted by: Laura at May 16, 2009 12:40 PM

Yes Laura, you are partially right: Arab lobbyists representing countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as well as the big oil companies (the multinationals that were listed before the zionists because there are more of them and they have more resources) are a large part of the problem. That, however, does not excuse the Zionist lobbyists, the "Christian Coalition," or any other powerful groups who use their money and influence to twist the laws and manipulate the political arena in order to deprive the American people of a government which serves THEIR interests. 4 billion dollars is given to Israel every year, but I doubt any of the GOP puppets would even agree to look at whether that is really in America's interest. We just saw recently, when Obama brought out his list of wasteful, ineffective programs that he wanted to cut and was received with a bipartisan backlash of "we're all for cutting the defecit, but not this worthless program that wastes money by paying multi-billion dollar agro-companies not to plant fields or that worthless program that gives billions to rich aeronautics companies for military aircraft we don't need." Two senators just were in the news for circulating a letter for their fellow senators to sign without removing AIPAC from the file name before attaching it in the e-mail to hide its origin. It's disgusting and your hatred for muslims and arabs doesn't change it one bit. For somebody who is always calling people anti-semites, you sure are a bigot.

Posted by: construcivecritic at May 16, 2009 1:21 PM

By the way, for what I would love to be the last time, disagreeing with Israel's brutal abuse of Palestinians, land-grabs, and international deceit is anti-Israel, possibly anti-zionist, but in no way anti-semitic. Stop trying to push your agenda by forcing people to equate anti-zionism with anti-semitism. Secular Jews can easily ignore the issues with zionism, but truly religious Jews are too well educated in Jewish scripture and doctrine to simply write off the fact that zionism is blatantly forbidden by their scriptures! As for Israel providing a refuge for Jews, I find it hard to believe that you don't realize what Israel actually does. Israel was created because racists in the British and American governments wanted to prevent a flood of Jews fleeing mainland Europe after WWII from entering their countries. Ever since its creation, Israel has been a force for the murder and persecution of Jews, not a refuge! When Israel murders thousands of innocent civilians, Jews in Europe as well as those who have lived peacefully in the Middle East for thousands of years are punished for Israel's misdeeds! When Israel was created, many Jews left their homes and emigrated to Israel, leaving the rest of their thousand-year old communities weaker and weaker. As Israel's outrageous actions prompted wave after wave of outrage, Jews were forcefully uprooted world-wide despite having nothing to do with Israel and the radical, extremist Zionist movement! Israel is not a friend of the Jews any more than China is a friend of the Tibetans. Think about it. Look into it. Stop being sheeple.

Posted by: construcivecritic at May 16, 2009 2:41 PM
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