Soccer Dad

Specter of a chance

I forgot to respond to the National Journal's poll about Sen. Specter's party switch. Even the left of center bloggers were not uniform in their enthusiasm of him. And while Specter may claim that he didn't leave the Republican Party but that the Republican Party left him, that's self delusion. Evidence shows that the Republicans were awfully indulgent of the senator.

But here's the question: Will Senator Spector run as the Democratic candidate for Senator from Pennsylvania in 2010? Or put another way, will he survive the Democratic primary?

Apparently Sen. Specter has gotten support from both national and local major Democratic Party officials, including President Obama, Senator Casey and Governor Rendell. Still his deal has apparently already ruffled some feathers. (h/t Jennifer Rubin)

And then there's the matter of Sen. Specter's strength as a Democratic candidate for the senate. Jay Cost writes:

I think the big story - which I do not expect to be emphasized because many Beltway pundits don't know much about Pennsylvania politics, especially west of the Appalachian Mountains - is that the political dynamic in the Keystone State has shifted, not so much against the GOP (at least on the presidential level), but against Arlen Specter, who has - during his twenty eight years in the Senate - failed to develop a durable political connection to Western Pennsylvania. When he entered the Senate, metropolitan Philadelphia, his home base, was also the GOP's base in the state. In 1980 four of the five counties in Philadelphia voted for Reagan while five of the seven counties in metro Pittsburgh voted for Carter. This has basically been inverted in the last quarter century - and while neither party's presidential candidate has been better off statewide for this shift, Arlen Specter has personally been on the losing end.

In other words it isn't so much that Pennsylvania Republicans moved to the right, as much as Spector didn't work on broadening his appeal. But if western Pennsylvania voters are less likely to support him because he isn't conservative enough; eastern Pennsylvania voters are less likely to support him because he isn't liberal enough.

Clearly Rep. Sestak is ambitious and it is unlikely that he'd be willing to cross more powerful Democrats, unless he smells blood in the water. If Senate Democrats aren't willing to sacrifice their seniority for Specter, why should Sestak sacrifice his ambition? (h/t memeorandum)

But Sestak declined to rule out a challenge to Specter during an interview Thursday on the "Bill Press Show," a nationally syndicated liberal talk show.

Sestak also said he would not let Democratic leaders in Washington push him out of the race. President Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) have promised to raise money for Specter and campaign on his behalf during the 2010 Democratic primary.

I have to believe that Sestak has a real chance, else he wouldn't dare defy his party's leaders.

Plus Sestak has an issue that will help him against Specter. (h/t memeorandum)

"I cannot see the unions across the board supporting Specter if he cannot support EFCA," Sestak said in an interview with me a few moments ago. "[Stern] let it be known that it's very much on the top of their agenda."

Sestak cautioned that Stern didn't directly address the 2010 primary. But he said the meeting went "great," strongly suggesting that SEIU is seriously considering supporting him or another primary challenger to Specter. "It was very clear that there were a number of issues we agree on," Sestak said of his much-anticipated meeting with Stern.

Sestak also confirmed that he'd almost certainly get in the race if Specter doesn't show a major ideological change of heart. "If he doesn't demonstrate that he has shifted his position on a number of issues, I would not hesitate at all to get in," Sestak said.

Even if Specter would change his vote on card check due to union pressure, Sestak will still look like the better candidate from the union standpoint. (And I don't believe that Specter's leverage against Sestak will be that effective in the Democratic primary.)

I'm guessing that Specter won't run in November 2010. And it won't be his choice either.