Soccer Dad

Tantalus

According to the New York Times, things are coming up roses for Bashar Assad:

It is not just a matter of the Obama administration's new policy of engagement. President Nicolas Sarkozy of France led the way with a visit here last September. King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, who was said to be furious at the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, welcomed him warmly in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, this month. Photographs of the two men smiling and shaking hands have been on the front pages of all the major Arab newspapers, along with frequent headlines about the "Arab reconciliation."

At the root of these changes is Syria's alliance with Iran. Saudi Arabia and the other major Sunni Arab nations once hoped to push Syria away from Iran through isolation, and now -- like President Obama -- they appear to be trying sweeter tactics. For the Syrians, the turnabout is proof that their ties with Iran are in fact useful, and accord them an indispensable role as a regional broker. Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries "have great stakes in maintaining good relations between Syria and Iran, because at difficult times they will find Syria helping them," said Faisal Mekdad, Syria's vice minister of foreign affairs, during an interview here.

The Times goes on to claim that Israel's war against Hamas has strengthened Syria's hand. The Arabs put on this show of unity every year at their summit.

In a related article, Seymour Hersh, tries to explain how wonderful engagement with Syria will be for the United States and the West. (via memeorandum)

Many Israelis and Americans involved in the process believe that a deal on the Golan Heights could be a way to isolate Iran, one of Syria's closest allies, and to moderate Syria's support for Hamas and for Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite group. Both Hamas and Hezbollah are listed as terrorist organizations by the U.S. State Department. There is a competing view: that Assad's ultimate goal is not to marginalize Iran but to bring it, too, into regional talks that involve America--and perhaps Israel. In either scenario, Iran is a crucial factor motivating each side.

These diplomatic possibilities were suggested by Senator John Kerry, of Massachusetts, the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, who met with Assad in Damascus in February--his third visit since Assad took office, in 2000. "He wants to engage with the West," Kerry said in an interview in his Senate office. "Our latest conversation gave me a much greater sense that Assad is willing to do the things that he needs to do in order to change his relationship with the United States. He told me he's willing to engage positively with Iraq, and have direct discussions with Israel over the Golan Heights--with Americans at the table. I will encourage the Administration to take him up on it.

"Of course, Syria will not suddenly move against Iran," Kerry said. "But the Syrians will act in their best interest, as they did in their indirect negotiations with Israel with Turkey's assistance--and over the objections of Iran."

But then he gets here:

However, Alastair Crooke, a former British intelligence officer who operated in the Middle East and later served as an adviser to the European Union and a staff member for a fact-finding committee on the Middle East headed by Mitchell, said that the new Administration should not assume that Bashar Assad could be separated easily from Iran, or persuaded to give up support for Hamas and Hezbollah. "Bashar now has enormous standing in the Arab world, and it comes from these pillars--he was among the first to oppose the American war in Iraq and his continued support for Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas," Crooke said. "He cannot trade the Golan Heights for peace with Israel, and cut off his allies. What Syria can do is offer its good standing and credentials to lead a comprehensive regional settlement." But, he said, "the Obama Administration is going to make it really painful for Syria. There will be no bouquets for Syria."

He went on, "The real goal of Assad is not necessarily an agreement on the Golan but to begin to engage America and slice away the American demonization of his state." The changed political landscape in Israel would complicate this process for the Syrians. He said, "They're starting all these processes to break their isolation and change their strategy. It's going to be bloody difficult for them to manage this."

In other words, no matter how much Hersh tries to spin Assad's new openness, Assad is willing to play the game, but, as he always does, will pull the football the way at the last instant.

Or as Barry Rubin puts it succinctly:

Do you detect a pattern? Hints of moderation, talk of splitting away from Iran, promises to improve human rights or stop sponsoring terrorism are all barely concealed lies to get a good press and more concessions from the West.

So why don't Western leaders, diplomats, and journalists see this pattern and loudly proclaim that Syria is a radical, aggressive, terrorist-sponsoring regime that cannot be trusted.

There's a saying that goes like this: You fool me once, shame on you. You fool me twice, shame on me. When it comes to U.S. and European relations with Syria, the record is clear and the blame can be placed on both sides: one as trickster, the other as sucker.

Crossposted on Yourish.