Soccer Dad

Defensive shield is still shielding

There are a couple of mantras about Israel's current war against Hamas. One is that Israel cannot defeat Hamas militarily. Another is that the costs of the war - including the possible re-occupation of Gaza far outweigh the benefits of defeating Hamas.

Evelyn Gordon in Defensive Shield: myths and facts asks us to draw lessons from a reasonably successful counterinsurgency operation that is still ongoing.

Finally, and most importantly, once the army withdraws, there is nothing to stop the terrorists from rearming and regrouping. That should be obvious to anyone who observed Hizbullah after the IDF left Lebanon in 2000 or Hamas after the IDF left Gaza in 2005: Both organizations exploited the IDF's absence to import massive quantities of arms, recruit and train troops and dig fortifications. Nothing similar has happened in the West Bank because the IDF has been there continuously, enabling it to intercept arms deliveries and arrest new recruits.

It is that slow, step-by-step work over the course of years - gathering intelligence, carrying out raids and arrests - that gradually eroded the terrorists' capabilities in the West Bank to the point where suicide bombings have become a distant memory. Indeed, just how essential that ongoing presence was became clear every time international pressure forced us to return a city to the Palestinian Authority: Each time, terrorist activity in that city quickly resumed, resulting in a deadly suicide bombing and the IDF's return.

This also tells us that terrorist don't voluntarily disarm, so there are extreme limits on the effectiveness of negotiating with them. Past experience doesn't seem to have been such a great teacher.