Soccer Dad

Barack obama: kryptonite to terrorists

Back in May, David Ignatius wrote about how the United States ought to continue its counterinsurgency war against Al Qaeda.

This evidence from the field suggests two conclusions:

First, al-Qaeda isn't a permanent boogeyman; it's losing ground in Iraq and Afghanistan because of U.S. counterinsurgency tactics, especially the alliances we have built with tribal leaders and the aggressive use of Special Forces to capture or kill its operatives. These anti-terrorist operations require special skills -- but they shouldn't require a big, semi-permanent U.S. military presence in Iraq or Afghanistan. Local security forces can handle a growing share of responsibility -- perhaps ineptly, as in Basra a few weeks ago or in Kabul last weekend, but that's their problem.

Second, the essential mission in combating al-Qaeda now is to adopt in Pakistan the tactics that are working in Iraq and Afghanistan. This means alliances with tribal warlords to bring economic development to the isolated mountain valleys of the FATA region in exchange for their help in security. And it means joint operations involving U.S. and Pakistani special forces to chase al-Qaeda militants as they retreat deeper into the mountains.

Apparently there was a third element that he just added since Nov 4, elect Barack Obama (via memeorandum):

The upsetting news for our imaginary jihadist is the election of Barack Obama as president of the United States. This wasn't supposed to happen, in al-Qaeda's playbook. Its aim was to draw the "far enemy" (meaning America) ever deeper onto the battlefields of Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Instead, the jihadists must cope with a president-elect who promises to get out of Iraq and whose advisers are talking about negotiating with the Taliban. And to top it off, the guy's middle name is Hussein.

I figured that the jihadists would be more wary of the President who would persist in fighting them, but Ignatius clearly knows better. And actions like negotiating with the Taliban, well that actually can't be expected to work according to Col David Kilcullen one of the formulators of the America's current counterinsurgency strategy:

Rather than talking about negotiations (which implies offering an undefeated Taliban a seat at the table, and is totally not in the cards) I would prefer the term "community engagement." The local communities (tribes, districts, villages) in some parts of Afghanistan have been alienated by poor governance and feel disenfranchised through the lack of district elections. This creates a vacuum, especially in terms of rule of law, dispute resolution, and mediation at the village level, that the Taliban have filled. Rather than negotiate directly with the Taliban, a program to reconcile with local communities who are tacitly supporting the Taliban by default (because of lack of an alternative) would bear more fruit. The Taliban movement itself is disunited and fissured with mutual suspicion--local tribal leaders have told me that ninety per cent of the people we call Taliban could be reconcilable under some circumstances, but that many are terrified of what the Quetta shura and other extremists associated with the old Taliban regime might do to them if they tried to reconcile.

(via Contentions)

So it would appear according to someone who knows a thing or two about counterinsurgency that negotiating with the Taliban is a non starter. My guess that in reality, unlike Ignatius's unfounded suggestion, Al Qaeda and co. prefer the more conciliatory candidate winning. Blackfive is dismissive:

Damn that sounds easy, just "turn a page" and wipe out thousands of years of religious hatred. Just gaze upon the lands OBAMA and they will heal under your gaze. Oh and fix the global economy because the only reason anyone hates us is that we have Play Stations and they are eating steam soup. What a freakin' maroon. Our economy is fine and has been fine and there are Korans full of reasons those bastards think they can and have to beat us you simpleton. I relish the thought of The Obama and his legions of do-gooders waving wands and healing the planet. Clowns.