Soccer Dad

Post election post mortem

Congratulations to Sen. Obama on being elected the 44th president of the United States. How did he win?

Red State, Blue State looks at the numbers and sees, not a realignment, but an increase in the vote for the Democrat across the boards.

The red/blue map was not redrawn; it was more of a national partisan swing.

So it would appear that President elect Obama's efforts at getting out the vote (the ground game) and the economy were what fueled his victory.

(h/t memeorandum)

And I think this validates Dr. Helen's observation:

Because rather than think the country is going through some incredible demographic shift of Republican-hating left-wing ideology, it is rather comforting to know that the major reason people voted for Obama in this election was the economy. McCain was actually polling pretty well right before the economic crisis. Next election cycle, it will be something else. It might favor the Republicans or it might not. But to think that the entire philosophy of individual rights, small government, national security and gun rights is lost on a new generation of voters based on this one election is not only foolish, it shows a degree of cynicism that may not be accurate.

(h/t memeorandum)

This clinical dissection of the campaign pretty much confirms that.

To several McCain advisers, Sen. McCain's public show of dealing with the crisis by trying to broker a bailout deal between the president and Congress had fallen flat. "We completely blew it," said one. "The execution of a potentially great move couldn't have been worse."

But Mr. Salter doesn't think briefly putting the campaign on hold was a mistake. "Even if John hadn't suspended his campaign, the unprecedented financial meltdown was going to help Obama," he says.

When voters were asked in a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll about 10 days later which candidate would be better at improving the economy, 46% said Sen. Obama and 29% said Sen. McCain. Asked which presidential ticket was doing better in debates, the respondents favored Obama/Biden by 50% to 29% over McCain/Palin.

Of course this didn't help either:

Heading into the general-election campaign in June, Sen. McCain had been in a good place. He had won the Republican nomination early enough to be rested and ready after the bitterly fought Obama-Clinton contest.

But in a strategy session of five McCain advisers -- campaign manager Rick Davis, pollster Bill McInturff, strategist Steve Schmidt, ad-maker Fred Davis and strategist Greg Strimple -- the back and forth revealed a fundamental problem. Fred Davis posed a question designed to give the campaign a central focus: "Why should we elect John McCain?" Tellingly, after several hours of debate, the five couldn't reach a consensus.

"Without an overriding rationale, our campaign necessarily turned tactical rather than strategic," one adviser recalls. "We focused more on why Obama should not be president, but much less on why McCain should be."

(related see this: Why be President. It's something every candidate should be able to answer.)

(h/t memeorandum)

This account of the campaign from the New York Times can scarcely contain its glee, but comes to the same conclusion:

Mr. McCain's inartful phrase about the economy that day, and the responses of the two campaigns, fundamentally altered the dynamic of the race. But the episode also highlighted a deeper difference: the McCain campaign team often seemed to make missteps and lurch from moment to moment in search of a consistent strategy and message, while the disciplined and nimble Obama team marched through a presidential contest of historic intensity learning to exploit opponents' weaknesses and making remarkably few stumbles.

Yes, Sen. McCain ran far from a perfect campaign, but his errors got magnified by the media in a way that Sen. Obama's didn't. Sen. Obama's response to Joe the Plumber could have been as devastating, but instead of treating it as a gaffe, the media started scrutinizing Joe the Plumber rather than exploring the implications of Sen. Obama's remark. It's a lot easier to stay above the fray when parties are voluntarily doing your oppo research for you.