Soccer Dad

Krauthammer throws in the towel

When I read the news today that McCain was closing down operations in Michigan, it struck me. The race is over.

Chris Cillizza wrote, though, that the race isn't over.

The McCain campaign held a conference call with political director Mike DuHaime and senior adviser Greg Strimple to argue that the Arizona Senator retains a viable path to 270 electoral votes.

Their map: Win six toss up states -- Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana and Ohio -- that have traditionally favored Republicans and hold the solidly GOP states to get to 260 electoral votes. Then find 10 more electoral votes in some combination of Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

"To say we are on defense is not true," insisted Strimple. "We are aggressively using our resources in states where we have to win."

Maybe. But the problem with that logic is it assumes McCain can hold those six red state tossups, which, in the case of Ohio, Colorado and Virginia (at least) looks to be a dicey proposition.

The other McCain isn't so optimistic:

The top folks at Maverick HQ -- who in early September were thinking about what their positions might be in the McCain administration's transition team -- are now on Travelocity, booking their Caribbean vacations for the second week in November. They will furiously deny this of course, but the ability to lie through one's teeth with apparent sincerity is a prerequisite to being a professional political operative.

And Charles Krauthammer who earlier counted Sen. Obama out due to gracelessness, and more recently because his star had dimmed, now believes that Sen. Obama just needs to run out the clock (or here).

Now Obama is cool as in collected. He has the discipline to let slow and steady carry him to victory. He has not at all distinguished himself in this economic crisis -- nor, one might add, in any other during his national career -- but detachment has served him well. He understands that this election, like the election of 1980, demands only one thing of the challenger: Make yourself acceptable. Once Ronald Reagan convinced America that he was not menacing, he won in a landslide. If Obama convinces the electorate that he is not too exotic or green or unprepared, he wins as well.

(I disagree with Krauthammer's charactrerization of McCain's support for the surge as a "Hail Mary" play. He didn't advocate it for political advantage. But that's beside the point.)

And while he believes that Sen. Obama has the necessary attributes at this time to win, Krauthammer still harbors reservations about him. (The same ones that I do.)

Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr. famously said of Franklin Roosevelt that he had a "second-class intellect, but a first-class temperament." Obama has shown that he is a man of limited experience, questionable convictions, deeply troubling associations (Jeremiah Wright, William Ayers, Tony Rezko) and an alarming lack of self-definition -- do you really know who he is and what he believes? Nonetheless, he's got both a first-class intellect and a first-class temperament. That will likely be enough to make him president.

Well yes, I do think I know some of what he believes. While he won't likely govern as far to the Left where his true convictions lie, his convictions are pretty far from the mainstream and they will inform his decisions to some degree. But the rest of the sentence is on the mark.

Is it possible as Jay Cost writes that McCain's problem is the credit crisis?

What really matters is if, when, and how this financial situation resolves itself. It is fair to say that, on a purely political basis, McCain needs a resolution more than Obama. His numbers have taken a hit - and, despite his best efforts, he has not successfully gotten in front of this issue. That's not to say that he needs this particular bill to pass - the fact that members of Congress in the most competitive districts voted against the bill tells us something. Rather, McCain needs this issue to become less immediate, less salient. Nothing else is getting through right now. McCain needs this to drop off the front page as a first step to recover the ground he has lost in the last 20 days.

It's possible that getting a bill passed will help McCain's campaign. Still the withdrawal from Michigan feels significant.

And can Sarah Palin's performance last night really make a difference as Frank Luntz suggests?

No matter how attractive a candidate she is, she's #2 on the ticket and McCain will win or lose on his own strength. Gov. Palin may have assured herself a prominent role in national politics, but I don't imagine that she will change the race.

Sigh.