Soccer Dad

Tahadiyeh

The other day Ynet reported that Hamas refused further talks over Gilad Shalit because of continued Israeli violations of the truce.

Mahmoud Al-Zahar denies reports that Hamas, Israel engaged in talks aimed at securing release of abducted IDF soldier Gilad Shalit; senior Hamas figure slams Israel, says it has failed to adhere to Gaza Strip ceasefire agreement

The same day Ynet reported that another Qassam hit the Negev.

After several days of relative calm, rocket fired from Gaza at western Negev; no injuries or damage reported

This is typical of Hamas: demanding Israel adhere to its interpretation of the ceasefire agreement while failing to uphold its end. It's pretty typical of Israeli agreements with Arab parties. The Arabs agree to receive something from Israel and refuse grant any tangible return for Israel.

Still, the Qassams have decreased during the past month, so the problematic Hamas violation isn't the Qassam but what else Hamas has been up to. The Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center just released its one month report about the lull. They give Hamas credit:

Hamas's conduct thus far has clearly shown that it is interested in upholding the lull, hoping to enjoy its fruits, primarily opening the crossings between the Gaza Strip and Israel and Egypt . Opening the crossings, the "lifeline" of the Gaza Strip, would ease the economic and social pressure exerted on the Gaza Strip since Hamas seized power in June 2007.

The cessation of the IDF's operational activity in the Gaza Strip, as stipulated in the lull arrangement, is being used by Hamas and other terrorist organizations to advance their military buildup and increase their readiness for a likely scenario of a future confrontation with the IDF. Since the beginning of the lull, weapons and ammunition have been smuggled into the Gaza Strip on a similar scale to the pre-lull times, despite an improvement in the Egyptian activity against the smugglers. Furthermore, Hamas has significantly accelerated its training activity and its military buildup, publicly announcing it on Palestinian and Arab media.

This is not a stable situation, contrary to what Aluf Benn claims:

"The lull is fragile and will be short-term," Olmert warned. That is why the common interest in continuing it must be nurtured, and it must be understood that occasional outbursts of violence do not necessarily spell the end of the tahadiyeh. The cease-fire in the North survived the Second Lebanon War and was resumed immediately at its conclusion. That can happen in the South, too.

It could happen in the south. But all that means is that Israel will tolerate a certain level of violations before it is forced to act. The cycle will repeat unless Israel takes decisive action against Hamas wiping out most of its terrorist capabilities, just as it did to Fatah during Operation Defensive Shield.

The point of the tahadiyeh from Hamas's standpoint is to allow itself to re-arm and prepare for its next campaign against Israel.

It's also reasonable to assume that Hamas has no intention of releasing Gilad Shalit anytime soon. Despite its political and military gains from the tahadiyeh, if Hamas is brazen enough to claim that Israel isn't keeping its side of the bargain while it flagrantly violates the truce (by rearming), it wants a lot more from Israel before it will release Shalit.

Crossposted on Yourish.