Soccer Dad

Writing on the wall

Fred Barnes on Retiring Republicans:

Democrats John Conyers, John Dingell, and Charles Rangel were in the wilderness from 1994 to 2006, the years of Republican rule of the House of Representatives. They endured the shame of being in the minority. Then Democrats regained control of the House, and, at age 77, Conyers became chairman of the House Judiciary Committee. It was his second stint as committee chairman. Dingell got back the chairmanship of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, which he'd held earlier for 14 years. He was 80. And when Rangel became chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee last year, he was 76.

What kept them from retiring after 1994 was their expectation that Democrats would win back the House quickly (they were wrong about that). Now Republicans in the House have the opposite expectation. They believe the prospects of a Republican revival in the foreseeable future are exceedingly poor. So 30 of them, including some of the party's brightest stars, are retiring. Four have already quit, resigning rather than finishing out their final term.

He mentions Conyers, Dingell and Rangel, however there were a number of prominent Democrats who retired prior to 1994. (Not necessarily immediately prior to those elections.) They include Pat Schroeder and William Gray.

My guess is that politicians have even better polling than news organizations. They have a better read on the immediate future of their parties. So it's not just that these retirements make it harder for the Republicans to keep some seats, it's an indication that the Democratic does not appear to be reversing itself anytime soon.

Even the troubles of Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick is in an upcoming Democratic primary. (h/t Instapundit) She's not likely to lose her seat to a Republican.