Soccer Dad

Israel alone

On Friday I commented on Charles Krauthammer's column despairing that anything could be done to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Yesterday I noted that Ze'ev Chafets argues that that fact means that Israel must take matters into its own hands.

What I had forgotten is that last year two researchers concluded that Israel likely has the technical ability to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities. In a paper "Osirak Redux? Assessing Israeli Capabilities to Destroy Iranian Nuclear Facilities," Whitney Raas and Austin Long consider a number of factors that Israel needed to address in order to be able to strike and destroy Iran's nuclear facilities.

Daniel Pipes was impressed enough to summarize their findings in a column Israeli Jets vs. Iranian Nukes. Pipes finds their scenarios plausible but cautions:

The great question mark hanging over the operation, one which the authors do not speculate about, is whether any of the Turkish, Jordanian, American, or Saudi governments would acquiesce to Israeli penetration of their air spaces. (Iraq, recall, is under American control). Unless the Israelis win advance permission to cross these territories, their jets might have to fight their way to Iran. More than any other factor, this one imperils the entire project. (The IDF could reduce this problem by flying along borders, for example, the Turkey-Syria one, permitting both countries en route to claim Israeli planes were in the other fellow's air space.)

I'd add in a few more cautions. One is that Israel, if it were to target Iran would almost certainly have to have dry runs. Long flights by Israeli jets will be detected. Will those who have the satellites keep quiet.

Israel no longer has the element of surprise. According to an account of the Osirak operation, Raid on the Sun, the Israeli planes overflew King Hussein's yacht. King Hussein was puzzled by the Israeli jets but simply ignored them for one reason or another. Next time, a similar occurrence would compromise the mission early.

Finally there's still the matter of the necessary constitution to carry out such a long mission. This mission would require a lot of stamina to fly non-stop. It was tough enough to do in 1981, it will be a lot further now. All the high tech equipment doesn't reduce the physical strain such a missionn would be on the pilots.

I hope it doesn't come to it, because I wouldn't want Israel's safety to have to depend on such a complex mission. Still I suppose that it's better to have a plan.

Crossposted on Yourish.

Israel, iran.