Soccer Dad

When condi met johnny

William Kristol writes in the Shape of the Race to Come in which he lays out this nightmare (for Republicans) scenario (via memeorandum):

I can report that lots of conservatives and Republicans expect Barack Obama to be our next president.

Some Republicans are grasping at the idea that a long, bitter fight for the Democratic nomination will weaken Obama. Their hopes are about to be dashed. After the results are in from Pennsylvania on April 22, or from Indiana and North Carolina on May 6, it should become clear that Hillary Clinton won’t be able to catch Obama in the overall popular vote. Without that possibility, Clinton won’t have a shot at persuading superdelegates to break her way.

So Clinton will probably concede by mid-May. She’ll be a gracious loser (they’ll hide Bill away somewhere). The weeks that follow will be a Democratic lovefest. And the money will keep pouring in to the Obama campaign, ensuring Democratic dominance of the airwaves in the summer.

The Democratic convention is the last week in August. Shortly before, Obama will pick his running mate. He’ll have good choices available to him: experienced figures like Sam Nunn, Dick Gephardt and Tom Daschle, a senator with military service like Rhode Island’s Jack Reed — or, of course, Hillary Clinton. Then the Hollywood-produced and directed Democratic convention will be all uplifting Change and inspiring Hope, and it will work.

What could Sen. McCain do to counter this? One possibility that's getting discussed is selecting Condoleezza Rice as his VP. Not only that, but it's being reported the Sec. Rice has been actively campaigning for the slot.

I'd guess that I'm skeptical of this claim that Sec. Rice is running. Just a few weeks ago when the speculation started, she was pretty emphatic about not seeking elective office.

I have always said that the one thing that I have not seen myself doing is running for elected office in the United States. I have -- for elected office, because I didn't even run for high school president. You know, it's sort of not in my genes.

Look, it's possible she was just being coy. But if she was, it would be pretty soon for her to start campaigning after making a statement like that. It would come across as perhaps a bit too over-aggressive. Sen. McCain isn't picking his running mate until the convention. We've still got four months to go. For Sec. Rice to be openly campaigning now, I think, would be bad form.

I'm not usually into conspiracy theories, but I suspect that such whispers may be coming from her political detractors. They may have seen her talk in front of Grover Norquist's group and perhaps other activities as suggesting that she's intersted in raising her profile for consideration. I don't think that it's coming from her.

But aside from that, I don't see Sen. McCain choosing Sec. Rice to be his VP. On one hand having the second female candidate and first black candidate for VP, would perhaps blunt some of the appeal of Sen. Obama or Sen. Clinton. And there's no doubt that Sec. Rice has high level experience.

However, Sen. McCain is likely to position himself apart from the current administration. There is no one in the Bush administration who is identified with the President more than Sec. Rice. I believe that alone among his cabinet she was advising him as a candidate. It will be hard for Sen. McCain to distance himself from the Bush administration if Sec. Rice were on his ticket.

Specifically, Sec. Rice is a liability regarding the war in Iraq. Sen. McCain can argue that he supported the war but differed with the administration on its execution. He could even argue that his views had been followed, the war would have shown better results sooner. However, columnist David Ignatius has argued that as National Security Adviser, Sec. Rice didn't mediate successfully between Secretaries Powell and Rumsfeld. I don't necessarily take Ignatius seriously, but if he makes the case, you can be sure the Democrats will.

In short, I can't see Sen. McCain choosing Sec. Rice as his VP. Strata-sphere, though would disagree.