Soccer Dad

I am change

Early polling in Iowa shows that how the state will vote in November, depends on the candidate (via memeorandum):

Whether Iowa turns red or blue in the fall presidential election may have a lot to do with which Democrat is on the ballot against Republican John McCain, according to a new Iowa Poll by The Des Moines Register.

Barack Obama would carry Iowa if he were the Democratic nominee running against McCain, if voters feel in November the way they do now.
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But McCain would carry Iowa in an election matchup with Democrat Hillary Clinton if the election were held now, according to the new poll.

From what I've seen, Iowa is a microcosm of what we've been seeing in polling so far. (Related thoughts at Outside the Beltway.) So assuming that Sen. Obama is the Democratic nominee, does Sen. McCain have a chance?

Bill Kristol thinks so. (via memeorandum)

Barack Obama is an awfully talented politician. But could the American people, by November, decide that for all his impressive qualities, Obama tends too much toward the preening self-regard of Bill Clinton, the patronizing elitism of Al Gore and the haughty liberalism of John Kerry?

It’s fitting that the alternative to Obama will be John McCain. He makes no grand claim to fix our souls. He doesn’t think he’s the one everyone has been waiting for. He’s more proud of his country than of himself. And his patriotism has consisted of deeds more challenging than “speaking out on issues.”

The case that Kristol makes is that Sen. Obama's claim to change consists of voting for him. He, not policies he espouses, represents change. Kristol thinks that come November this pose will wear thin.

From my perspective I hope that's the case. However there are many possible narratives that could still emerge to tell the story of this campaign. It could be the vigor of youth vs. the experience of age. That's not a narrative that will necessary help Sen. McCain.

john mccain, barack obama.