Soccer Dad: Oddities of 2008

February 10, 2008

Oddities of 2008

I know that (barring a really surprising comeback by Mike Huckabee) for the first time in 48 years, Americans will be electing a sitting Senator to the Presidency.

There's a lot more that I didn't know.

Here's a bit of amazing trivia for the historic election of 2008: It's the first time two sitting senators will run against each other as their party's nominee for president.

In fact, only two sitting senators have ever been elected president--John F. Kennedy, who ran against then Vice-President Richard Nixon in 1960, and Warren G. Harding, an Ohio Republican who beat the Democratic governor from his home state to win the 1920 election.

I thought that the trend towards governors winning the White House was a new one. I did not think that it was so rare for a Senator to be elected President. (And I certainly thought that Senators earned nominations more frequently.)

Why do Senators so infrequently win the prize, or even compete for it (i.e. win their party's nomination)?

Here's some speculation: With six-year terms, senators have long histories of roll-call votes. They often appear to flip-flop on issues, or will vote against a slightly different version of a bill--remember John Kerry's claim about voting for war funding before he voted against it? Other times, a senator will vote for a bill simply because there is an amendment attached that would be favorable to his or her constituents.

This amounts to a field day for opposition research teams: Few things are easier to twist in a 30-second campaign spot than a Senate voting record.

That, of course, is a modern reason. There weren't 30 second campaign spots in the 19th century. And sitting Senators weren't elected then either.

There's another oddity we might see this year. According to Jonathan Rauch, the presidency will be won by Sen. Barack Obama.

As every grocer knows, many products have sell-by dates. Bread lasts a day or two, milk maybe a week. Well, presidential aspirants have a sell-by date, too. They last 14 years.

Herewith, Rauch's Rule. Actually, it was pointed out to me by a young political genius named�but I can't tell you his name, because he works in a government job and asked me to keep his name out of my article. Sadly, I must myself take credit for the Law of 14:

With only one exception since the presidency of Theodore Roosevelt, no one has been elected president who took more than 14 years to climb from his first major elective office to election as either president or vice president.

(I'm assuming that Sen. Clinton's unelected position of First Lady would count as a "major elective office" since it seems to be part of her political resume. That being the case, her expiration date passed two years ago and there's only one contender who hasn't worn out his freshness quotient.

Of course there would be a real challenge to the 14 year rule if Sen. Clinton wins the nomination despite her campaign's reported current fears. So we'd be left with two choices: either disregard her time as First Lady and define "major elective office" strictly or consider it the second exception (since Teddy Roosevelt) to the 14 year rule.

George W. Bush took six years. Bill Clinton, 14. George H.W. Bush, 14 (to the vice presidency). Ronald Reagan, 14. Jimmy Carter, six. Richard Nixon, six (to vice president). John Kennedy, 14. Dwight Eisenhower, zero. Harry Truman, 10 (to vice president). Franklin Roosevelt, four. Herbert Hoover, zero. Calvin Coolidge, four. Warren Harding, six. Woodrow Wilson, two. William Howard Taft, zero. Theodore Roosevelt, two (to vice president). The one exception: Lyndon Johnson's 23 years from his first House victory to the vice presidency.

And, of course, if our next President is John McCain, we certainly have the second exception.

election 2008.