Soccer Dad

Wrong again

Contentions.Daniel Casse writes Another Loser: Frank Luntz. This has nothing to do with Luntz's plant.

Frank Luntz, the pollster who has been conducting focus groups on air after debates on Fox News, has just had the nerve to show up on Fox and declare that “turnout models are broken” by way of explaining how pollsters got the New Hampshire results so wrong.

Casse notes further that Luntz himself was projecting big wins by Sen. Obama and Gov. Romney.

My question is this: Are there serious flaws in polling methodology? Are news organizations somehow skewing their results to give us a better story? We saw a "Kerry comeback" in Iowa four years ago. Now we're seeing a "Hillary comeback" and "McCain surprise" in New Hampshire this year. (McCain seemed to be the pollster's favorite going in, though not by as much.)

I figured that campaigns' internal polls are probably more accurate than the public ones done by news organizations. But then Clinton had that staff shake-up yesterday.

Gary Langer of ABC writes:

In the end there may be no smoking gun. Those polls may have been accurate, but done in by a superior get-out-the-vote effort, or by very late deciders whose motivations may or may not ever be known. They may have been inaccurate because of bad modeling, compromised sampling, or simply an overabundance of enthusiasm for Obama on the heels of his Iowa victory that led his would-be supporters to overstate their propensity to turn out. (A function, perhaps, of youth.)

If the problem was the youth vote, Zogby overstated its importance in November 2004. But still I wonder, did any campaign get its internal polling correct? That's where the news organization should be looking.

UPDATE: Casse gets some points for prescience writing Hillary: not dead yet yesterday.

But don’t forget that she still has more money than anyone in the campaign and deep, embedded support in key states. If, after Tuesday, the race comes down to just Obama and Clinton, we might see a real contest of “new versus experience.”

I still believe that money (and organization) is the major factor. Remember Obama-Clinton and Romney-Giuliani will be the four left standing. If I'm right, you can start ignoring polls and start paying attention to FEC filings.

election 2008, john mccain, hillary clinton.

Posted by SoccerDad at January 9, 2008 6:12 AM