Soccer Dad

To like or not to like

The New York Times reports today

Three weeks before the Iowa caucuses, Republican voters across the country appear uninspired by their field of presidential candidates, with a vast majority saying they have not made a final decision about whom to support, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

Not one of the Republican candidates is viewed favorably by even half the Republican electorate, the poll found. And in a sign of the fluidity of the race, former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, who barely registered in early polls several months ago, is now locked in a tight contest nationally with Rudolph W. Giuliani and Mitt Romney.

By contrast, Democrats are happier with their field and more settled in their decisions. For all the problems Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton appears to be having holding off her rivals in Iowa and New Hampshire, she remains strong nationally, the poll found. Even after what her aides acknowledge have been two of the roughest months of her candidacy, she is viewed by Democrats as a far more electable presidential nominee than either Senator Barack Obama or John Edwards.

But is Huckabee's rise significant? Jay Cost differs.

First, Huckabee is still in what might be called a "honeymoon" phase. Voters are just now learning about him. This is important because when voters do not know very much about a candidate, they tend to ascribe to him the qualities that they prefer - even if the candidate might not possess those qualities. It is kind of like projection. Larry Bartels found this to be the case for Carter in 1976, Bush in 1980, and Hart in 1984. My intuition is that something like this is happening with Huckabee. If so, that would be good news for the Romney campaign - which can use its resources and its remaining time to educate Iowans about how Huckabee is not the best thing since sliced bread. And so, Huckabee's numbers might be artificially high right now.

This seems about right. I noted a few days ago that four years ago at this time Howard Dean led the Democrats. The Times's reporters are likely reading too much into the current polls.

If Chris Cillizza is right we might start seeing Giuliani righting himself rather quickly. (via memeorandum)

Still, given the HUGE spotlight on Giuliani -- created in part by his long-delayed one-on-one with Russert -- his campaign had to be happy with his performance. Not only did Giuliani have an effective rejoineder for every one of Russert's questions but, more importantly, his temperament was spot on. Giuliani came into this race with a reputation for pugnacity; stories of his angry responses to reporter questions are legion in New York. But, yesterday Giuliani was a model of reasonableness. He rarely appeared ruffled by Russert's questions and never let any annoyance or anger seep into his answers.

Maybe this will even help Rudy with the "likability" issue.

giuliani, republicans, iowa.