Soccer Dad: Like success

November 16, 2007

Like success

Elder of Ziyon in his November 1947 and Annapolis Deja Vu reminds us that when it comes to Middle East peacemaking nothing succeeds like failure.

However Charles Krauthammer in Alliances in ruins? (or here) reminds us that generally, in international relations, nothing succeeds like success.

I would even add that the looming prospect of a nuclear Iran has caused Arab states -- Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, even Libya -- to rally to us. All true. And it makes the point that the Bush critics have missed for years -- that the strength of alliances is heavily dependent on the objective balance of international forces and has very little to do with the syntax of the U.S. president or the disdain in which he might be held by a country's cultural elites.
It's classic balance-of-power theory: Weaker nations turn to the great outside power to help them balance a rising regional threat. Allies are not sentimental about their associations. It is not a matter of affection but of need -- and of the great power's ability to deliver.

And of course what's led to this shift?

What's changed in the past year? Bush's dress and diction remain the same. But he did change generals -- and counterinsurgency strategy -- in Iraq. As a result, Iraq has gone from an apparently lost cause to a winnable one.

I'm not sure I buy Krauthammer's argument this week. For one thing as he pointed out earlier.

France has a new president who is breaking not just with the anti-Americanism of the Chirac era but also with 50 years of Fifth Republic orthodoxy that defined French greatness as operating in counterpoise to America. Nicolas Sarkozy's trip last week to the United States was marked by a highly successful White House visit and a rousing speech to Congress in which he not only called America "the greatest nation in the world" (how many leaders of any country say that about another?) but also pledged solidarity with the United States on Afghanistan, Iran, Lebanon, the Middle East and nuclear nonproliferation. This just a few months after he sent his foreign minister to Iraq to signal an openness to cooperation and an end to Chirac's reflexive obstructionism.

That's France. In Germany, Gerhard Schroeder is long gone, voted out of office and into a cozy retirement as Putin's concubine at Gazprom. His successor is the decidedly pro-American Angela Merkel, who concluded an unusually warm visit with Bush this week.

All this, beyond the ken of Democrats, is duly noted by new British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who in an interview with Sky News on Sunday remarked on "the great change that is taking place," namely "that France and Germany and the European Union are also moving more closely with America."

Are the friendships of France and Germany a result of success in Iraq? Sarkozy and Merkel were elected before the surge (or at least before it showed signs of success.) And both countries were as unhelpful in containing Iraq in the 90's curing Clinton's presidency as they had been in earlier during Bush's term. (Even now Germany seems to be less than cooperative in dealing with Iran.)

And the Middle Eastern countries he mentioned may be looking towards the United States, but it hasn't translated into support for Annapolis. (Though I'm skeptical that Annapolis will accomplish anything.)

I'm sure that the surge helps America's standing with international relations, but I don't buy that it's the cause of America's newfound friends.

UPDATE: via memeorandum
Angry Bear.Cactus is even more critical of Krauthammer than I am. Actually, I don't really disagree with the substance of Krauthammer's except in the matter of the relation to the surge.

Bits Blog observes (ironically):

Indeed, the situation has gotten SO chummy with old Europe and the US, that Brown is finding himself playing catch-up with Germany and France, in terms of trying to stay in the good graces of the US.

Blue Crab Boulevard summarizes Krauthammer:

The resurgence of a belligerent Russia and an increasingly powerful China are part and parcel to the strengthening ties with allies. This is not a new thing. Part of the reason nations felt they could display some anti-Americanism was because there were few external threats. Now Russia, China and a soon-to-be nuclear armed Iran are changing the realpolitik once again.

foreign policy.