Soccer Dad

The bomb and iran

Barry Rubin writes about what is being done and why it needs to be done regarding the Iranian nuclear threat. (or here) What's being attempted.

...it is the last moment for three other things:

* If international terms, if diplomatic and economic pressure is going to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons it has to be intensified right now or it will be too late to generate the needed non-military threat to Tehran.
* In technological terms, Iran is right on the verge of being able to build nuclear weapons all by itself without any more foreign help or equipment.
* In political terms, if Iranian leaders and people aren’t worried about the country’s isolation and the nuclear program’s high costs, they will more likely keep in power the regime’s most extreme faction—and the ones most likely to use nuclear weapons in the future.

So in several real ways it is truly a moment of now or never, not because of an imminent attack but due to the fact that this era gives the last chance to avoid one.

President Bush isn't war mongering when he talks about the possibility of World War III, he's warning what could be if Iran isn't stopped. But Prof Rubin goes on to argue, that nuclear weapons in the hand of Iran may be more effective as a looming threat than as actual means to attack enemies.

# Appeasement: Frightened by Iran’s possession of nuclear weapons and uncertain of Western protection, Arabic-speaking states will rush to meet Iran’s demands.
# This means they will be afraid to cooperate with U.S. policy or provide facilities for Western efforts to contain Iran. And that development will make them even less able to protect themselves against Tehran, further reinforcing the effect.
# Given Iran’s rejectionist stance, no Arab state or the Palestinian Authority would dare move toward peace with Israel. Even if you believe such a thing is possible now, forget about it for 20 or 30 years.
# Since Iran always favors higher oil prices (with Saudi Arabia, which already has lots of money, holding them down), the combination of Iranian pressure and heightened regional insecurity will send the cost of petroleum sky-high, far above anything hitherto dreamed.
# Intoxicated with a belief that Islamism is on the march to victory, tens and perhaps hundreds of thousands will join radical Islamist groups, either clients of Iran or independent ones.

He lists more possible consequences but these five are scary enough. And yet there are countries that are undermining even the American diplomatic efforts aimed at stopping the development of the Iranian nuclear bomb. Are they already being cowed by Iran? Or do they figure that they'll be spared Iran's wrath if they betray the United States now? Or have they simply not thought about the future?

Crossposted on Yourish.

iran.