Soccer Dad

Pieces of process

Coming on the heels of Gen Moshe Yaalon's op-ed in the LA Times describing the threats that Israel cannot ignore, Noah Pollak of the Shalem Center describes the peace process that Israel cannot trust, in The Imaginary Peace Process.

What is relevant are three interrelated questions: 1) Does Hamas, or any Palestinian terrorist group, intend to perpetrate terrorism against Israel? 2) Is there a significant climate of public opinion in the West Bank that approves of such attacks? 3) Is Mahmoud Abbas powerful enough to stop terrorism, despite its popularity and the eagerness of groups like Hamas to attack? Unfortunately, the answer to the first two questions is yes, and the answer to the last is no.

There were a few news items this week that underscored Pollak's observations.

The Associated Press reported on a protest held by Islamic Jihad youth in Gaza.

Israel holds more than 9,200 Palestinian prisoners, most of whom were arrested during the past seven years of Israeli-Palestinian fighting.

Note that most have been arrested since the outbreak of the "Aqsa Intifada" Israel had freed a great number of Palestinian prisoners for political activity in accordance with the Oslo Accords. However the issue of those arrested for violence against Israel since then remains important. But those arrested during the past seven years demonstrated that they didn't believe in the peace process.

An Israeli soldier accidentally wandered into Jenin but was saved.

An Israeli soldier who took a wrong turn into Jenin on Monday was returned unharmed by Palestinian security forces loyal to President Mahmoud Abbas in a new sign of cooperation with Israel. A crowd in the city overturned and torched the soldier's abandoned car.

I suppose one could read this as James Taranto did yesterday

This latest incident is only an anecdote, not yet a trend; but it may signify that the rise of Hamas is actually forcing "moderate" Palestinians to behave moderately, because accommodating Israel is their only hope for survival.

My feeling is the same as Meryl Yourish's less optimistic view

You see, my thought is more along the lines of: If the Palestinians truly want peace, Israelis would not need to be saved from them by the PA police. Those are not the actions of a people who want to live in peace, side-by-side with Israel.

Meanwhile, Israeli Public Security Minister Avi Dichter accuses Egypt - which has had a peace treaty with Israel for nearly 30 years - of helping Hamas.

And a reporter for the Telegraph showed that Palestinians are increasingly seeking neither peace nor democracy but a return to the Caliphate.

Taken separately any of these items might be dismissed, but taken together they complete a picture that shows fourteen years after Oslo, the Palestinians are no more committed to peace than they were then. Any concessions Israel makes at this time will be extremely risky. Peace will not follow from ill conceived retreats at this time.

israel, peace process.