Soccer Dad

Diving into chaos?

Some bloggers have been discussing whether or not Fatah "took a dive" and allowed Hamas to take over Gaza. IsraPundit's Ted Belman says, "Yes"

Like clockwork, we read

US to continue training Abbas’ guard
Olmert: Israel can talk to a PA without Hamas
Fatah security adviser says Gaza is now Hamas’ responsiblity
Embargo to be lifted
Fatah members transferred to West Bank
Israel will not interfere in Gaza.
All within twenty four hours. And it all happened just a couple days after Mofaz was in Washington to discuss military coordination and days before Olmert was to visit Bush. How fortuitous. Usually something of this magnitude would result in the leader of a country staying home. But not here.

So you tell me, did they take a dive? Was the US and Israel behind it?

Of course. The US determined that Hamas was an obstacle to progress. A decision was made to cut Gaza loose and to focus on the West Bank First option, effectively separating the “peace process” with Fatah from the war process with Hamas.

Meryl Yourish disagrees

I’m not buying it. An Islamic theocracy funded and backed by Iran and Syria, on Egypt and Israel’s borders, is not a desired neighbor, and Hamas has proven itself adept at surviving everything but IAF Hellfire missiles.
...
There is also the fact that Fatah may have had numerical superiority, but numerical superiority has never amounted to anything if the soldiers have neither the training nor the will to fight. The Arab armies have had the numerical superiority in all of Israel’s wars, and yet, Israel remains.

Neither does Mere Rhetoric

We just don't think that the Palestinians can pull off such a complicated conspiracy - if they had that kind of logistical and tactical skill, they'd have a state already. But wow, this certainly seems to have worked out nicely for them: Hamas employees are now getting paid with Western funds, just as if the boycott had been lifted with Hamas in power. But never ascribe to malice what can be explained by incompetence.

(h/t In Context)

Israel Matzav looked at the same Taheri article and didn't read anything else into it, just seeing the increased influence of Syria and Iran. (Seemingly consistent with Meryl Yourish.)

OTOH, he also brings a piece of evidence that Fatah did indeed take a dive, but for practical reasons.

Middle East Newsline is reporting this evening that Egypt collaborated with Hamas on its takeover of the Gaza Strip, because Fatah 'strongman' Muhammed Dahlan was conspiring with al-Qaeda to throw Hamas out of the Strip - in return for Fatah allowing al-Qaeda free reign to infiltrate the Sinai Peninsula

Would Al-Qaeda Gaza though have the power to dislodge Hamas? If it's not indigenous to Gaza, I'd rather doubt it. If this is the calculation of Dahlan, it doesn't strike me as a very well thought out.

Elder of Ziyon though links to the Conflict Blotter, that reveals that Fatah fighters were never told to fight back.

When I suggested that Fatah had possibly been sold out by Dahlan, Elder of Ziyon replied that he thinks it was more a matter of Abbas's wanting to preserve resources rather than waste them on a fight that was already lost.

He also blogged of a reason why Abbas might want to preserve what he can: So that he could at least save Judea and Samaria as his fiefdom.

So was it a tactical retreat? Or part of a larger scheme to force Israel to come to terms with the moderates?

hamas, fatah.