Soccer Dad

The resilience of olmert and kadima

The Dawn of Olmert's Second Government by Anshel Pfeffer of the Jerusalem Post is an important analysis of the recently concluded elections for Labor Party Chairman and President of Israel.

Despite the war and everything that has happened since, the opposition is still small and therefore ineffective. Labor is only the second-largest member in a coalition which is still led by the chairman of the largest party, Kadima, and that man has once again proved himself an unparalleled political tactician in masterminding Peres's breathtaking victory. Peres might have finally won a political race, and Ehud Barak carried off an almost unimaginable comeback in the Labor primaries, but Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is also a winner this week.

One of the most overlooked aspects of Ariel Sharon's career is that he was a master politician. Not everyone who resigns in disgrace returns to government in any capacity; fewer still return to head the government.

I'd guess that Sharon choice Ehud Olmert reflected more than just a political consensus, but a recognition of a similar talent, capable of carrying on a legacy.

That's why disappointing election results and a poorly managed war last year, Olmert and Kadima don't appear to be in any immediate danger of losing their hold on power.

Ironically it was seven years ago when Ariel Sharon, then opposition leader engineered the defeat of Peres's candidacy (by outgoing President Moshe Katzav) for President showed his political strength, last week's victory of Peres shows Olmert's strength.

Pfeffer rightly identifies Binyamin Netanyahu as one of the big losers in last week's elections. Netanyahu, was unable to garner the support of his candidate, Ruby Rivlin to be president. He also will now face Ehud Barak, who defeated in 1999 to become prime minister, as head of the opposing Labor Party in general elections whenever they occur.

Netanyahu, apparently concerned with appearing too ambitious, didn't press his political advantage when he had the chance. He may have missed the chance to bring Likud (and himself) back to power.

(In the 1990's Netanyahu broke with Likud to cast the deciding vote to pass the now-defunct direct election of Prime Minister law. He figured correctly that, at the time, the bill would make it easier for him to win the premiership. He didn't figure how quickly he, himself, would become a liability.)

Ehud Barak has started making noises about bringing down the government to bring about new elections. He ought to be careful. Right now Olmert is holding all the cards. If he plays his hand wrong, he may find himself heading an opposition party again after elections should he underestimate Ehud Olmert.

Daniel Pipes acknowledged last year that Kadima had outperformed his expectations. He still didn't expect it to do as well the next election as it had last year. As of now, though, it appears that Olmert and Kadima are in control, and nothing on the horizon appears to be an immediate threat to that control