Soccer Dad

The damascus index

Years ago, Morton Kondracke developed the Tirana index. This index was popularized by Charles Krauthammer. In a column 20 years ago (January 9, 1987) Krauthammer described it like this:

In 1982 Albania held an election, which Communist Party chief Enver Hoxha won by 1,627,959 votes to 1. A decisive victory. It suggested to me at the time a key to what political philosophers had long been seeking: a reliable tyranny index The Tirana Index (named after Albania's capital) holds that repressiveness correlates with electoral success. The higher the score rolled up by the ruling party in elections, the more tyrannous the regime. At one end of the spectrum are places like Albania, the Soviet Union and Syria, where 99 percent of the vote is the norm. At the other end are free-wheeling semi-anarchies, like Italy, where it is unsafe to drive and where the ruling party never gets half the vote. In between lie orderly democracies like the United States (winning margins of 60 percent, tops) and moderate autocracies like Mexico, which will broach 70 but not much more for fear of embarrassment to all concerned.

A few weeks ago, the Tirana Index met yet another challenge. In the midst of a severe food and energy shortage, Rumania held a referendum. The result: 17,699,772 Rumanians voted yes, no one voted no. A shutout. A perennial contender for the honor of most repressive regime on Earth (in Rumania, typewriters must be registered with the police) had conducted what may be the most perfect election yet.

When you read the NY Times account of Bashar Assad's campaign for another term, it's hard not to be struck by the surrealism of the spectacle.

Only a year ago, Mr. Assad faced so many troubles that some Syrians began questioning his political survival. His troops had been forced out of Lebanon, his government faced accusations of collusion in the assassination of the former Lebanese prime minister, Rafik Hariri, and the Bush administration had imposed sanctions that affected everything from the fleet of Boeings in Syria’s national airline to medical equipment. Waning oil reserves hinted at economic collapse, and the European Union delayed signing a much-needed trade agreement.

But as he prepares for a so-called national referendum in which he is certain to be overwhelmingly re-elected for a second seven-year term, Mr. Assad seems very much in control, with his rivals isolated, his critics increasingly in prison or fearing retribution, and international pressure eased. He has consolidated power around his immediate family and rewarded loyalists. And he has continued to reap the benefits of Washington’s troubles in the region. In Lebanon, the anti-Syrian March 14 movement, which helped force Syria out, has seen its political fortunes plummet, mired in unrest.

Only a year ago, Assad looked like he was on the outs. Of course, had he exited the scene, it likely would have been at the end of a rope or the wrong end of a rifle. He would not have been voted out of office.

The Times then reports the observations of a newspaper editor. In most countries, he would be a standard source to contribute observations about the political climate in his country. But this is Syria, so the editor is the editor of a government run newspaper. So the quote is not unlike getting a movie review from the producer of the film.

Co-blogger, Judeopundit actually adds some serious reporting to the events, by uncovering news of President Assad's latest election squeaker.

Rhymes with Right recalls a bit of related history, from M*A*S*H

As a kid, i remember watching the show MASH. For some strange reason, one of the lines that stuck with me over the year was one by Radar, who announced that a party was because "Syngman Rhee 's been elected dictator again."

Bashar Assad