Soccer Dad

Syria-us proposal?

According to Ha'aretz, Syrian and Israeli negotiators concluded a non-binding peace agreement. Outside the Beltway brings up the obvious problems

I remain incredibly skeptical at the moment, however.

First, the negotiation period was followed by an Israel-Hezbollah-Syria mini war. That hardly inspires confidence that an “understanding” has been reached.

Second, it’s far from clear why Syria would give up so much given what appears to be a position of relative strength.

Third, presuming such an accord were signed in good faith, there’s no reason to believe the Assad government could control Hezbollah. Not only would Iran be able to cover the gap easily enough but there is plenty of money available to finance the continued killing of Israeli civilians and ensure that the Palestinian cause doesn’t go away as a means of diverting Arab attention from the malfeasance of their governments

The problem with this supposed understanding is that the biggest hangup Syria has had with a deal with Israel has been normalization and this supposed deal envisions a fuller level of normalization that anything broached in the past. Also given the centrality of the getting the Golan back to Syria, it's hard to imagine a deal that would give Israelis unrestricted access to the Golan would be acceptable to Syria. Unless it has really changed in the past seven years.

Despite the many doubts that the supposed deal raises, if true, it could explain something that didn't seem to make a lot of sense this summer. A Blog For All explains

Such a deal may help explain why Israel was so reluctant to go after the Lebanon-Syria border during the conflict with Hizbullah in August. It may also explain why Israel was so accepting of the UNIFIL deal despite the fact that the Israelis didn't appear to gain anything while leaving Hizbullah in a superior position. This could be a mitigating factor in Olmert's decision making, but should not excuse his reluctance to bring Israeli force to bear on Hizbullah. Indeed, the timing of this deal may be because Olmert needs to show some success on any possible front - and a deal with Syria could do just that.

For the reasons above, I'm skeptical that any understandings along the lines reported by Eldar took place. Or maybe that's why the understandings remained unofficial. I guess the biggest mystery is why leak news of this agreement now? Is it a signal that there is something else going on beneath the surface?

Blogdigger tags: Israel, Syria, Golan Heights, Peace.