Soccer Dad

What's behind olmert's peace offer?

Yes, it's another ceasefire.

Though it is clearly being used by the Palestinians to re-arm (just as Hezbollah's using the respite up north to re-arm).

And though the Gazans continue to observe the ceasefire in the breach. (Note to headline writers: firing on your enemy during a ceasefire doesn't "endanger" the ceasefire, it "violates" it.

And yet, PM Olmert decides to ignore the violations and make an offer of peace to the Palestinians. (How was his previous peace offer greeted? Not auspiciously.)

Could it be that PM Olmert is acting the part of the battered girlfriend? (Sort of like Barak engaging in the Taba negotiations in early 2001, just 4 months after Arafat launched his terror war.)

Or is something else going on?

The New York Times reported that Bush [is] Asking Arab Friends for Iraq Help. (via memeorandum)

In return for helping on Iraq, the Sunni Arab countries have asked the Bush administration for a new push toward an Israeli-Palestinian peace accord. Mr. Bush has largely shied away from that longstanding demand, but things may be changing.

Ms. Rice may add two stops — Ramallah, in the West Bank, and Jerusalem — to her itinerary this week, administration officials said. While her schedule has not been made final, Ms. Rice is considering meeting with Ehud Olmert, the Israeli prime minister, and Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian Authority president.

Ms. Rice has argued in favor of stepping up work on the Israeli-Palestinian front, and several times this fall she has seemed to be on the verge of a major peace initiative, only to be overtaken by other crises.

If I remember correctly, then-PM Sharon's support for disengagement came at a time when American pressure was expected. So Sharon pre-emptively introduced his idea in order to forestall that pressure.

If that's the case surely PM Olmert can read the writing on the wall too. Surely he knows the price that Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia asked of the United States for helping out in Iraq. Surely he also knows that the peace process is something Secretary Rice is pushing.

Though the offer of a re-started peace process looks like its rewarding terror when offered during a violated ceasefire, there may be something more going on. In this case the United States bears a lot of the blame too.

The Bush administration could point to the Egyptian and Saudi role in the collapse of the Camp David talks in 2000 and tell those countries that if they really wanted peace there was a time to support the peace process. Their active work against compromise undermines their credibility in demanding help now.

During the last few days, a number of Arab leaders like Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudia Arabia and President Mubarak have joined with Mr. Arafat's domestic opponents in Islamic militant movements to weigh in on the issue. They all but threatened Mr. Arafat with political excommunication if he accepted Prime Minister Ehud Barak's proposals for administrative control over parts of the city and access to -- but not sovereignty over -- the major Muslim sites.

The Jersualem Post also observes that

The same goes for the Arab world. Olmert, it should be noted, cited "positive" aspects of the Saudi plan that he had previously dismissed. What Olmert also should have done is more directly challenged these governments to lead the way in encouraging the Palestinians to engage with Israel by setting a positive example themselves.

Rather than constantly trotting out anti-Israel resolutions at the UN, these states could start warming diplomatic contacts, eventually leading to exchanges of visits between Israeli and Arab leaders. If the Arab states were serious about peace, what better way to strengthen the Palestinians who want to engage Israel in earnest?

Some other positive steps the Arab world could take would be to drop its opposition to Israel's being in the regional group in the UN; drop its objection to the Magen David Adom as an internationally recognized symbol of the Internatinal committee of the Red Cross and perhaps even talk about compensating Jews from Arab lands for the property that was confiscated by the Arab regimes from them before they were expelled.

Egypt should be called upon to stop the arms smuggling into Gaza. Syria could demand that its client terror groups release Shalit, Goldwasser and Regev in advance of any Israeli confidence building measures.

There are plenty of goodwill gestures the Arab world could make to show their sincerity in helping the Palestinians. Asking American to turn up pressure on Israel is their typical dodge. Unfortunately too often America sees its role as "honest broker" involving putting pressure on Israel.

Not responding to these Arab demands gives them a level of credibility that they don't deserve.

It's not that I'm against peace, it's that no similar overtures come from the Arab side. Until the Arab world has something specific to offer Israel - as specific as what they demand of Israel - their quest for a revived peace process can't be taken seriously. If they aren't forced to build Israel's confidence their cynical demands for pressure on Israel should be summarily dismissed by the United States.

The news suggests that the Bush administration has failed to do this.

That is unfortunate.

Technorati tags: Israel, Ehud Olmert, Iraq.