Soccer Dad

Minor tremors

Yesterday William Safire came out of retirement to analyze the "Thumpin'"

Despite the pervasive weariness with the war and the high tide of irritation at Bush’s steadfastness; despite the general disgust at the policy paralysis and ethical laxity in the wake of muscle-bound one-party control — the result was only the average loss of House and Senate seats of the party in power midway in the second term of a president.

A political shakeup every dozen years is a necessary cathartic for the two-party system. What’s more, the rightward cast of many Democrats in the freshman class is hardly bad news for conservativism. And the heartening victory of Joe Lieberman over the angry far left in liberal Connecticut augurs a renewal of a brief period of bipartisanship at the water’s edge.

Charles Krauthammer looks at the results quite similarly

The fact that the Democrats crossed midfield does not make this election a great anti-conservative swing. Republican losses included a massacre of moderate Republicans in the Northeast and Midwest. And Democratic gains included the addition of many conservative Democrats, brilliantly recruited by Rep. Rahm Emanuel with classic Clintonian triangulation. Hence Heath Shuler of North Carolina, antiabortion, pro-gun, anti-tax -- and now a Democratic House member.

The result is that both parties have moved to the right. The Republicans have shed the last vestiges of their centrist past, the Rockefeller Republicans. And the Democrats have widened their tent to bring in a new crop of blue-dog conservatives.

That last bit is interesting. Does that mean that Michael Steele doomed his bid for the Senate by running away not just from President Bush, but also by running away from the conservative label?

And both Safire and Krauthammer read the Rumsfeld resignation the same way.

Months ago, he had made provision for that “new direction” response — a phrase acceptable to hawks provided the direction is not out, quick — in the post-election report to be made by James Baker and Lee Hamilton’s Iraq study group. The report should give cover to increased pressure on elected Iraqi leaders to confront the urgent needs of nationhood.

By placing Robert “Fresh Eyes” Gates, a former C.I.A. chief, on that panel, Bush paved the way for Donald Rumsfeld to absorb the need of opposition politicians for bureaucratic punishment. The loyal SecDef’s resignation after the poll results was Bush’s act of contrition.

and Krauthammer

Because both houses have gone Democratic, the election is correctly seen as an expression of no confidence in the central issue of the campaign: Iraq. It was not so much the war itself as the perceived administration policy of "stay the course," which implied endless intervention with no victory in sight. The president got the message. Hence the summary resignation of the designated fall guy, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.

There are a few observations worth making

1) The son of a Redskins legend lost. (George Allen) And the guy who was once supposed to be the Redskins savior (but never was), won. (Heath Shuler)

2) Lincoln Chaffee lost (and might lose his Republican label too) but the Democrats might have picked up a lot of mirror images of Chaffee along the way.

3) Talks shows who say that Republicans lost but not conservatives might be right. But if the Republicans become the party of conservatives only, it could be a disaster.

UPDATE: More at BuzzTracker.