Soccer Dad

Alarmist?

Last week Charles Krauthammer argued that the United States must stay the course in Iraq and even increase its troop strength.

Now, parsing a statement by President Bush, Krauthammer writes about what the United States plans to do to Iraq's neighbor, Iran, in the Tehran calculus (here as well) as wells as the possible, economic, military and diplomatic costs.

Krauthammer also gives a deadline for America taking action against the Iranian bomb: one year.

I have to admit, I'm not totally convinced by this column.

For one thing the economic costs that Krauthammer predicts include $100 a barrel oil that leads to a severe economic downturn. The economy recently absorbed an approximate $20 a barrel increase in oil prices. It inflicted hardship, to be sure, but the economy kept chugging along. $100 a barrel is more than the highest levels of this past July. It will necessarily be a burden, if it reaches that level, but will it lead to a severe recession? Maybe. But I hardly see the price of oil, nor a consequential recession to be inevitable.

Second, while considering the possible military actions of an American strike on Iranian nuclear capabilities, Krauthammer suggests

Iran will activate its proxies in Iraq, most notably, Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army. Sadr is already wreaking havoc with sectarian attacks on Sunni civilians. Iran could order the Mahdi Army and its other agents within the police and armed forces to take up arms against the institutions of the central government itself, threatening the very anchor of the new Iraq. Many Mahdi will die, but they live to die. Many Iraqis and coalition soldiers are likely to die as well.

If that's the case, why isn't the U.S. doing more to fight the Mahdi Army now? Being prepared is essential to any reasonable strategy. If the Mahdi army isn't degraded, I don't think we'll se an attack on Iran.

And of course, if one believes that the U.S. must step up its involvement in Iraq, I don't see how taking on Iran's nuclear facilities will be possible. I may think that such an action is necessary, I just don't see the United States as having the political or military capacity right now for carrying out such an action, especially if the consequences are likely to be as terrilbe as Krauthammer suggests.

Technorati tag: Iran

Posted by SoccerDad at September 15, 2006 6:15 AM