Soccer Dad

Hollow victory

In Hezbollah's "Victory" (or here) Charles Krauthammer doesn't go easy on the Israeli government.

True, under the inept and indecisive leadership of Ehud Olmert, Israel did miss the opportunity to militarily destroy Hezbollah and make it a non-factor in Israel's security, Lebanon's politics and Iran's foreign policy.

But he also concludes that Hezbollah did suffer quite a bit

Nonetheless, Hezbollah was seriously hurt. It lost hundreds of its best fighters. A deeply entrenched infrastructure on Israel's border is in ruins. The great hero has had to go so deep into hiding that Nasrallah has been called "the underground mullah.''

(BTW, Happy Birthday big guy. Too bad those candles on your cake weren't Hellfire missiles. I guess that's why you celebrated it underground.)

Furthermore Krauthammer points out

Most importantly, Hezbollah's political gains within Lebanon during the war have proved illusory. As the dust settles, the Lebanese are furious at Hezbollah for provoking a war that brought them nothing but devastation -- and then crowing about victory amid the ruins.

The Western press was once again taken in by the mystique of the "Arab street.'' The mob came out to cheer Hezbollah for raining rockets on Israel -- surprise! -- and the Arab governments that had initially criticized Hezbollah went conveniently silent. Now that the mob has gone home, Hezbollah is under renewed attack -- in newspapers in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Egypt, as well as by many Lebanese, including influential Shiite academics and clan leaders. The Arabs know where their interests lie. And they do not lie with a Shiite militia that fights for Iran.

Credit is due to a few observers who predicted this.

Simply Jews had called attention to Bradly Burston who called the war a war that Hezbollah couldn't lose, but still might.

Or as Thomas Friedman put it, this is "the morning after, the morning after"

On the morning after the morning after the ceasefire, Lebanese war refugees, who had real jobs and homes, will start streaming back by the hundreds of thousands, many of them Shiites. Tragically, they will find their homes or businesses badly damaged or obliterated. Yes, they will curse Israel. But they and other Arabs will also start asking Nasrallah publicly what many are already asking privately: "What was this war all about? What did we get from this and at what price? Israel has some roofs to repair and some dead to bury. But its economy and state are fully intact, and it will recover quickly. We Lebanese have been set back by a decade. Our economy and our democracy lie in ruins, like our homes. For what? For a one-week boost in 'Arab honor?' So that Iran could distract the world's attention from its nuclear program? You did all this to us for another country?" (New York Times, 11Aug06)

(Yes it galls me to credit Friedman, but he appears to be right on this count.)

So Krauthammer figures that Hezbollah's time has passed for now.

Which is why the expected Round Two will, in fact, not happen. Hezbollah is in no position, either militarily or politically, for another round. Nasrallah's admission that the war was a mistake is an implicit pledge not to repeat it, lest he be completely finished as a Lebanese political figure.

The Lebanese know that Israel bombed easy-to-repair airport runways when it could have destroyed the new airport terminal and set Lebanon back 10 years. The Lebanese know that Israel attacked the Hezbollah TV towers when it could have pulverized Beirut's power grid, a billion-dollar reconstruction. The Lebanese know that next time Israel's leadership will hardly be as hesitant and restrained. Hezbollah dares not risk that next time.

So Krauthammer thinks that the progress of the March 14 revolution could be restored.

It was just a year and a half ago that the democrats of the March 14 movement expelled Syria from Lebanon and rose to power, marking the apogee of the American democratization project in the region. Nasrallah's temporary rise during the just-finished war marked that project's nadir. Nasrallah's crowing added to the general despair in Washington about a rising "Shiite crescent'' stretching from Tehran to Beirut.

In fact, Hezbollah was seriously set back, as was Iran. In the Middle East, however, promising moments pass quickly. This one needs to be seized. We must pretend that Security Council Resolution 1701 was meant to be implemented, and exert unrelieved pressure on behalf of those Lebanese -- a large majority -- who want to do the implementing.

1701 though is an extremely flawed document. It puts Shebaa farms on the table and talks about Lebanese prisoners in Israel. And while the UN complains about Israeli violations it declares Hezbollah serious about keeping the peace.(when Israel strikes at Hezbollah positions it's considered a violation, but what if those members of Hezbollah were armed?)

If these gains are not to prove illusory, Israel and the United States will have to stand firm demanding real results. I'm not convinced that either is likely to do so.

Technorati tags: Nasrallah, Israel, hizbullah, Charles Krauthammer.