Soccer Dad

The ehrlich-steele pg county strategy

In 1994 Maryland Republican gubernatorial candidate, Ellen Sauerbrey won 21 of 24 jurisdictions in the State. Pretty impressive? Except the 3 jurisdictions that she lost - Baltimore City, Prince George's County and Montgomery County - she lost by over 180,000 votes. That was enough to elect Prince George's County Executive Parris Glendening as governor.

In winning election eight years later in 2002, Governor Bob Ehrlich won the same 21 jurisdictions and he lost the same three - by more than 250,000 votes - but still had enough in the other jurisdictions to pull out a narrow win over Lt. Gov Kathleen Kennedy Townsend.

It would appear that in the eight years between those two elections that Republicans failed to make inroads in Maryland's three most populous jurisdictions. Without changing too much Ehrlich may be able to win the election over Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley. But maybe he and his Lt. Gov. Michael Steele - now Senate candidate - have hit upon an idea.

Apparently they are not taking the Republican minority status in the big three for granted. It would appear that they have embarked on a PG County strategy.

First of all, Parris Glendening's successor, Wayne Curry, as PG County executive was named to Ehrlich's transition team. Since 2003, Curry has been appointed to a number of state jobs including, most recently to the board of the Maryland Stadium Authority. I read rumors, that initially Ehrlich had tried to convince Curry to switch parties and run as a Republican this year. (This was well before Sarbanes decided to retire.) Still it would appear that Curry remains close to Ehrlich.

I don't think that Curry is, by himself, significant, it's what he represents. Prince George's County is a black majority jurisdiction with a fast growing middle and upper middle class. Over the past four years Steele, as Lt. Gov. has been engaged in reaching out to residents of PG County

The Sunday before the November 2002 election, Steele took a breakneck tour through some of Prince George's County's fastest-growing churches, where endorsements from key ministers -- explicit or implicit -- can sway hundreds, even thousands of votes.

At Jericho City of Praise in Landover, Steele and Ehrlich sat in an ornate room behind the sanctuary and described their vision for faith-based state programs.

Bobby Henry, an associate minister, said at the time that he wasn't sure the visit would yield many votes. And he was right -- academics found that Ehrlich-Steele didn't fare much better with blacks than had past GOP tickets, between 10 percent and 15 percent statewide. But Henry also said "it was meaningful to us that he came."

Last week, Henry said it has been even more meaningful that Steele and Ehrlich have kept on coming. "They have been back on numerous occasions," Henry said, "and they followed through on things they said they would do."

Entries in Steele's calendar suggest that he has turned an office with no job description into a headquarters for the administration's minority outreach effort. In recent months, Steele has met often with black political, religious and business leaders. He has made regular visits to, and delivered grants to, black churches and universities.

In an interview, Steele said he believes that those efforts have helped change black voters' perceptions of Republicans. Specifically, he cited efforts to increase funding to historically black colleges and to revamp the state's minority business enterprise program -- which helps minority- and women-owned firms compete for state contracts. "We didn't just talk about these reforms; we did it," he said.

An article last week in the Washington Post suggests that it's too early to know the results of this outreach, though Donna Brazile thinks it's significant.

Last week there was a lot of buzz over the news that entertainment mogul Russell Simmons was hosting a fundraiser for Michael Steele. (Blogged about: here, here and, heh, here.)

I don't think that Simmons's endorsement came out of the blue though. Just as Steele has been cultivating African American Marylanders, he's also been cultivating Simmons. Steele was one of the speakers at April's Save Darfur rally in DC. Simmons was one of the organizers; obviously the cause is close to his heart and Steele participated. (Democratic Senate candidate Kweisi Mfume was also listed as one of the speakers.)

Thus far Steele has reached out to African Americans, through church, through business. Now he's reaching out through entertainment. Will this be enough?

Although Steele has run consistently behind the Democratic frontrunner Congressmen Ben Cardin in polls, the difference between the two is in single digits. The Prince George's strategy could have the effect of keeping the Governor's mansion in Republican hands and having the first Republican Senator in Maryland in 20 years.

The proof, of course, will be in the election. If the general election in November shows a siginificant closing of the gap between the Republican and Democratic candidates, Maryland could provide a lesson for Republicans in other states. And the lesson would apply whether or not both Ehrlich and Steele win. It might also be the key into making Maryland a competitive two party state.

UPDATE: I'm a bit embarrassed, I had a source that I intended to use, but then forgot about. This essay from BET.com gives a reason why Steele's approach may work

And if you still doubt he‘s going all out to get Black folks in the mix, just click on over to his Web site, and you’ll see one of the slickest, hippest hubs on the Internet. And guess what? While he emphasizes the importance of involving a “new generation” – Translation: Hip-hop Generation – he never plays up party affiliation. Perhaps he also realizes that most Black folks (even though they vote overwhelmingly Democratic) tend to identify themselves as Independents. It’s likely that he also recognizes that a great many young Blacks do not feel connected to the traditional civil rights establishment.

Finally, fellow watcher Rhymes with Right looks at 5 races where Republicans may actually hold onto their seats despite longstanding doubts. If he's right that would be big. But if Steele wins Maryland, that would be even bigger.

Technorati tags: Maryland Politics,