Soccer Dad: Gates of hell

June 9, 2006

Gates of hell

After an Israeli Hellfire missile retired Sheikh Ahmed Yassin two years ago Hamas responded like this.

Hamas warned that it would have its revenge on Mr Sharon. The attack, it said, had "opened the gates of hell and nothing will stop us from cutting off his head".

I looked at a list of major terror attacks in Israel and looked at terror attacks 7 months prior to the killing of Sheikh Yassin and 7 months subsequent to the killing of Dr. Rantisi.

Aug 19, 2003 - Jerusalem
23 people were killed and over 130 wounded when a suicide bomber detonated himself on Egged bus #2 in the Shmuel Hanavi neighborhood. Hamas claimed responsibility for the attack.
Sep 9, 2003 - Tzrifin
Eight IDF soldiers were killed and 30 people wounded in a suicide bombing at a soldier hitchhiking post outside the Tzrifin army base and Assaf Harofeh Hospital. Hamas claimed responsibility for the attack.
Jan 14, 2004 - Erez Crossing, Gaza
A female suicide bomber detonated herself at an inspection point at the entrance to the Erez industrial zone, killing 4 Israeli security personnel and injuring several others. Hamas and Fatah claimed joint responsibility for the attack.
Jan 29, 2004 - Jerusalem
Eleven people were killed and over 40 were wounded when a suicide bomber blew up on a #19 bus on Gaza Road. The bomber was a Palestinian policeman from Bethlehem. Both Hamas and the Fatah Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade claimed responsibility.
Mar 14, 2004 - Ashdod
10 people were killed and 16 wounded in a double suicide bombing at Ashdod Port. Hamas and Fatah claimed responsibility.

Apr 17, 2004 - Erez Crossing, Gaza
A border policeman was killed and three others wounded when a Palestinian suicide bomber blew himself up. Hamas and the Fatah Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade claimed responsibility.

June 28, 2004 - Sderot
A man and a 4 year old boy were killed, and 7 others were wounded (including the boy�s mother) during a Kassam rocket attack on Sderot. Hamas claimed responsibility.
Aug 31, 2004 - Beer Sheba
Sixteen people were killed and 100 wounded in two nearly simultaneous suicide bombings aboard two city buses. Hamas in Hebron claimed responsibility.
Sep 29, 2004 - Sderot
Two toddlers were killed, while playing in the street, by a Kassam rocket fired from Gaza. Hamas claimed responsibility.

In the 7 months prior to the killing of Sheikh Yassin 56 people were killed in 5 terror attacks for which Hamas claimed credit. In the 7 months after the death of Dr. Rantisi Hamas claimed three terror attacks that killed 20 people.

Despite the boast of the gates of Hell, the killing of Yassin (and his successor Rantisi) hardly unleashed a deluge of terror. In fact Hamas was somewhat more limited in successful attacks after they were killed. Yassin wasn't simply a spiritual leader and Rantisi wasn't simply political. They were organizers and excellent ones at that. They knew how to recruit and train. Killing them set Hamas back.

Though we will hear a lot of voices saying that killing Zarqawi helps more symbolically than it does practically. Don't be so certain.

Zarqawi got to the top of the terorrist heap in Iraq by being effective. Yes others might take his place, but none are likely to be as deadly as he was.

In the case of Yassin and Rantisi the gates of Hell opened to receive two evil men, not to allow all sorts of demons to escape and wreak havoc on Israel. Don't be surprised if the insurgency in Iraq is weakened (at least temporarily) by the klling of Zarqawi.

Daniel Byman in Slate, though, explains why the Zarqawi/Yassin comparison may not be apt

Nor does the structure of the Iraqi insurgency suggest that the killing will have a lasting impact. When Israel killed the leader of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Fathi Shiqaqi, in 1995, it paralyzed the organization. Shiqaqi had led a highly hierarchical organization, and his successors squabbled for years over leadership and next steps. The Iraqi insurgency, in contrast, is highly decentralized, and the loss of any individual leader will not shut down most of the fighters because they are not waiting for their commanders to tell them where and when to strike. (It also means that, like Zarqawi, any new leader will exercise at best limited control of the overall movement.)

My gut feeling is that the killing of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi will hurt the insurgency's fighting capability.

Partisan Times brings the good news that Zarqawi wasn't the only terrorist retired today and that the Palestinians once again demonstrate that Israel's enemies are America's enemies too.

SerAndEz writes

It was a decisive blow, but it's not over yet - and probably won't be for a long time. But it is a huge step on the road to rebuilding Iraq and in the war on terror. May his memory soon be forgotten.

and links to a roundup of reactions at Life-of-Rubin.

Technorati tags: Al-Zarqawi,
Iraq, al-Qaeda.