Soccer Dad

Raid on the sun redux

I am currently finishing a borrowed copy of Raid on the Sun by Rodger Claire.

The book is about the Israeli raid on the Osirak reactor in Iraq in 1981. (I was studying in Yeshiva in Israel that year and when we were told that Israel had bombed Iraq it didn't compute with me. About that time Israel was regularly running raids into Lebanon so I was really surprised when I heard Iraq.)

It is well written and easy to read. It is marred by a number of annoying mistakes and errors that should have been edited out. (Claire seems to think that tachmoshet - ammunition, is 2 words. He makes the mistake twice!)

Though I haven't yet finished the book certain aspects of the raid are clear and have implications for any hypothetical raid into Iran. I don't mean this to be an exhaustive list, these are just the issues that occur to me.

1) It's no longer secret. When Israel attacked Osirak, what they were doing was unheard of. It's been heard of now. If Jordan or Saudi Arabia detects unidentified aircraft they will scramble their own defenses. Even if their aircraft don't engage the Israelis, the secret would be out.

2) The distance. Fighter pilots usually go on missions for no more than an hour. And hour when the pilot has to concentrate completely on his plane, not to mention be aware of any possible attackers. The round trip to Iraq was eight hours. Iran is further away.

3) Practice. I would assume that spy satellite capabilities are more advanced than they were 25 years ago. How will Israel train the pilots without the extended training flights being detected.

4) Detection. The eight planes flew over an Arab leader. If they flew over one today I don't think he'd have any uncertainty as to the source of the planes. (I know this is very close to 1.)

5) Israel allowed Claire access to all the team members. (The only one he didn't interview was Ilam Ramon who was killed in the Columbia accident before they could meet.) If Israel had any intention of pulling something like this off again would it have released all these details?

6) Political Will. Begin was absolutely convinced that the attack was justified regardless of consequences. Are there enough people currently in the government who are convinced of the need to attack Iran and would approve a plan this risky?

Reading the book it's very clear that the destruction of the reactor was nothing less than a miracle. The number things that could go wrong but didn't is amazing. And then a few things did go wrong but ended up not affecting the mission.

It may be possible that one of the scenarios laid out by Daled Amos will come to pass. But if it does something else will have to happen.

I think that there's another factor that will be involved if Israel plays any role in the destruction of Iran's nuclear facilities: Israel will not be doing it alone. There will have to be another country (or, more correctly, a least one other country) involved in the effort.

A final footnote. Most everyone knows that Ilan Ramon, Israel's first astronaut was one of the pilots involved. Two other pilots have also been in the news lately.

Ifrach Spector, Israel's greatest combat pilot became newsworthy a few years ago when he started a protest against Israel's tactics against terror.

Gen Amos Yadlin, another of the pilots, is now head of Israel's military intelltigence. He also is the author of Ethical dilemmas in fighting terrorism.

Technorati tags: Iran, Iraq, Osirak reactor, Israel.