Soccer Dad: It's the economy, habibi (not bibi)

March 29, 2006

It's the economy, habibi (not bibi)

The majority of analyses, will undoubtedly focus on how Kadima's victory signal Israel's willingness to force thousands from their homes and redraw its borders to keep the Jewish character of the state. Maybe.

But perhaps security/national concerns were not the primary considerations in the vote.

We should look at this election like the election of 1999. During his term in office Netanyahu oversaw a reduction in terror. In 1999 Israelis were secure, and did not vote for security. They voted religion. Or against religion. This was evidenced by the decline of Shas and ascendancy of the anti-religious Shinui party.

In 2006 Israelis felt secure. Terror is greatly decreased over what was five years ago. The government was, for the most part, successful. So Israelis didn't vote security. They voted economics.

According to Yossi Verter, Netanyahu resigned as Finance Minister after Sharon and Olmert started talking about social justice and indicating that once disengagement from Gaza was over they'd start undoing Netanyahu's reforms. (Netanyahu had no problem with pretending that it was over disengagement; that helped his nationalist credentials.)

In the race for Labor party leader, Amir Peretz defeated Shimon Peres who sat in the government that implemented Netanyahu's policies. (Biur Chametz disagrees with the importance I attached to this.)

Peretz and Labor gain seats for the first time in years.

Netanyahu, the face of the economic reform, leads his party down the tubes.

The pensioners party comes out of nowhere to be represented by six or seven seats.

It might be that the economists and policy makers hail Netanyahu's accomplishments but politically his reforms weren't popular.

This has not been an election about security but about economics. David Bernstein is correct. And it's not a good sign.

Technorati tags: Israeli elections, Israeli economy.