Soccer Dad

duncan vs o'malley vs schmoke

Right now Bob Ehrlich is governor of Maryland. There are (at least) two Democrats who wish to replace him and seem to have a fighting chance. One is Mayor of Baltimore who has been reaping credit for turning the city around. The other is Doug Duncan the County Executive of Montgomery County Maryland.

Until this week it looked like O'Malley was going to have a relatively smooth ride to the nomination. (Something he likely would have won four years ago had the wise elders of Maryland's Democratic party not pushed him to step aside for then Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. In fact had he run 4 years ago he may well have been Governor. He certainly would have been a more effective campaigner than Townsend was.)

At the end of January the Washington Post reported

Montgomery County Executive Douglas M. Duncan lags behind Maryland's two other contenders for governor not only in the amount of campaign cash he has raised but also in demonstrating a statewide reach.

Nearly three-fifths of the $1.3 million Duncan (D) collected last year came from the county he has served for the past 11 years, according to a Washington Post analysis of campaign finance reports released this month.

By contrast, Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley (D) raised about $4.3 million during the period, with a little more than a quarter of that coming from his city. Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. (R) took in a similar percentage from Baltimore County, his home base, en route to raising $4.9 million for the year.

The totals for Ehrlich and O'Malley demonstrated far greater statewide contributor bases. In one striking example, both the mayor and governor raised more than Duncan in Prince George's County, a jurisdiction seen as crucial to Duncan's primary prospects. Ehrlich raised more than $200,000 there, while O'Malley took in more than $137,000 and Duncan about $88,000.

Duncan didn't seem bothered though

"I've never raised as much money as my opponents, I've never been the front-runner, I've never been the party's favorite, and I've never lost an election," said Duncan, who was mayor of Rockville before three terms as county executive.

But when you're being outraised by 3.5 to 1 by a Republican in Maryland, that might be a cause for concern.

And issue though, seems to have fallen into Duncan's lap. WBAL-TV is reporting that some Baltimore crimes have not been reported, raising the question if Baltimore's much ballyhooed drop in crime has been exaggerated.

The Hedgehog Report notes that instead of defending himself against the charge that originated in the media, Mayor O'Malley has chosen instead of blasting his opponents

His campaign manager sent out a blast email, and instead of attacking the media that has uncovered these questions, accuses both Doug Duncan and Bob Ehrlich of orchestrating the attacks.

The charge of the exaggerated drop in crime could be very damaging to O'Malley. His strongest claim to the governor's mansion is the improvement he's brough to to Baltimore that led to his being named one of America's best mayor's by Time Magazine.

If it turns out that his crime-fighting miracle isn't quite as good as advertised, that would represent a serious liability to his appeal.

Ironically, it is a similar issue that first propelled then City Councilman O'Malley into the political spotlight. In 1998 he questioned the statistics previous Mayor Kurth Schmoke used to highlight reduced police shootings over the years. O'Malley could help himself by inviting an independent audit of crime reporting. So far he is resisting this process.

Technorati tags: Martin O/'Malley, Doug Duncan, Bob Ehrlich, crime.

Posted by SoccerDad at February 17, 2006 12:06 AM