Soccer Dad

Whither kadima?

In a previous post I denigrated the chances of Kadima surviving the incapicitation of PM Sharon.

Two bloggers have responded indirectly (one of them directly too).

Meryl Yourish points to PM Sharon's final interview with a Japanese newspaper prior to his stroke that was republished at Y-net. Meryl Yourish writes:

There you have it: A blueprint for Kadima, if Sharon doesn’t recover from the stroke.

Jewish Current Issues (who left a comment for me on this subject) wrote "Pray for Ehud Olmert":

Joel C. Rosenberg reminds us that prayers are also in order for Ehud Olmert. Amotz Asa-El, in an insightful column, suggests Olmert has the potential to be a unifying force (assuming he is not too tired).

My feelings on the viability of Kadima have little to do with its platform. As Sharon demonstrated, tough words now doesn't mean that the party will stick to them. Sharon's arguments against unilateral withdrawal when he ran against Amram Mitzna were used against him when he made disengagement his platform.

And to a lesser degree, Ehud Olmert's abilities don't convince me.

Unlike many others, I don't believe that Israel's electorate has changed that much since 2003. I don't believe that a campaign on future withdrawals will be successful. With Kassam's continuing to be fired from Gaza and the lack of any control of terrorist elements in Gaza promises of future withdrawals aren't going to fly.

I also don't believe that Netanyahu is such loony right wing fringe figure. Certainly Israel's right wing doesn't believe it. It may be convenient to paint Netanyahu in those terms, but I believe that Netanyahu is pretty much to the center of Israeli politics; Kadima is now left of center.

I don't believe early polls. A lot can change. And a competent campaign by Netanyahu should be able to exploit the weaknesses in Kadima.

David Horovitz wrote something that I think is very telling:

Just a few days ago, he scolded Ehud, Tzipi and the other Kadima children for squabbling over who was daddy's favorite, telling them to put their egos aside and remember that he would be running things for many years to come. Orphaned, they face the immense test of political life without him.

I've gotten the impression (and I suspect others do) that, apart from Olmert and Peres, most prominent members of Kadima are opportunists and crooks. Tzachi Hanegbi joined the party under an ethical crowd. Shaul Mofaz initially rejected the party until he lost the leadership vote for Likud. I think that the outsized egos that populate Israeli politics are unlikely to subordinate their ambitions to another. In the case of Sharon they were willing to; Kadima polled better than any other party and it seemed a sure way of keeping a Knesset seat.

But without the powerful unifying force of Sharon to keep them in order, I suspect each of these "indispensible" politicians will think he/she has a better chance of leading the list to glory. And the party will devolve into a circular firing squad just like the Center Party did in 1999 once the glue of Bibi hatred faded.

Is it possible that I'm "misunderestimating" Olmert? Sure. I'd have to guess that his defeat of Teddy Kollek was surprising in the way George W. Bush's defeat of Anne Richards was. But that victory didn't include leading a list of candidates, something that Netanyahu successfully did in 1996 (even if only narrowly). I also don't think that 83 days of governing will be much of a resume as Olmert, I expect, will mostly be placeholding.

(If Kadima wants to keep Bibi off guard they'll campaign around the withdrawal from Chevron - which ironically, Ariel Sharon voted against - and ask him to be forthright about any future withdrawals he might do. After all Netanyahu campaigned against any withdrawals from Chevron and did it anyway. Clearly even if he campaigns against withdrawals he will do some anyway as he did in the past.)

But my biggest problem with Kadima is something that Krauthammer wrote:

Accordingly, Sharon withdrew Israel entirely from Gaza. On the other front, the West Bank, the separation fence under construction will give the new Palestine about 93 percent of the West Bank. Israel's 7 percent share will encompass a sizable majority of Israelis who live on the West Bank. The rest, everyone understands, will have to evacuate back to Israel.

I heard Yossi Beilin speak in 1996. At the time he argued that Israel would keep "fingers" of settlements; essentially the view that Krauthammer and Kadima is proposing now. (Beilin, was sponsored by Peace Now. APN was clear that even this was too stingy for the Palestinians for them.) If so, what was the resistance to Beilin etc. in 1996? Is it only the manner of drawing unilaterally as opposed to as a result of a negotiated settlement?

Furthermore, what have the Palestinians done to deserve almost everything they say they deserve? Given that the Palestinians have violated ever single agreement they've made with Israel, there should be a significant penalty for such perfidy. 93% is essentially sending them to bed after dinner. It will be a demonstration that terrorism pays.

Not only that, but it promises to be dangerous if Gaza proves to be a predictive model. Maybe Kassam's are not accurate; but fire enough them and they will do significant damage.

Kadima will have to show that its plans for future withdrawals is responsible and that it is different from the surrender proposed by Labor and those of the Left.

Sharon could get away with it; I don't believe that there is anyone else who could.

UPDATE: Commenter Ami Isseroff at Israpundit writes:

Kadima will survive nonetheless. Olmert is not like Sharon. He is quiet and more or less competent, and nonetheless not afraid to take controversial stands. He was quite effective in shutting up Peres all on his own. He only had to crook his finger, and Peres was swamped with opprobrium because of hints he might want to compete for leadership. Peres spent the whole day saying that Olmert is the only true prophet of Sharon, but it didn't help. They were still dumping on Peres into the early hours of Monday morning.

A resource for Israpundit readers - Biography of Ehud Olmert

In a similar vein Shiloh Musings, in a comment here refers me to her website where she writes:

Everybody but Ehud Olmert is running around clueless. I'd say the Olmert is well prepared for his new role. That's not to say that I want him as Prime Minister. Though I must admit that I did predict that he'd hold the office. He has more administrative experience than any other politician. He was Mayor of Jerusalem and was a very involved mayor. Most other Knesset Members and ministers are incapable of running their offices, while Olmert ran a city, one of the most complex in the world.

In her comment Shiloh Musings wrote explicitly that Kadima is and was Olmert's party. But both think I'm underestimating Olmert.

Technorati Tags: Ariel Sharon, Kadima,
Israel.

Crossposted on Israpundit and Soccer Dad.

Posted by SoccerDad at January 8, 2006 1:44 PM | TrackBack