Soccer Dad

Cautious Optimism

Daniel Pipes, who initially supported Ariel Sharon as Prime Minister, thought that the PM lost his way when he proposed the "disengagement plan."

Some analysts consider Jews living in the West Bank and Gaza to be one of the leading obstacles to resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. . . .
First, it assumes that Palestinian Arabs seek only to gain control over the West Bank and Gaza, whereas overwhelming evidence points to their also aspiring to go further and control Israel proper. Therefore, pulling Israelis from the territories does no good.

In fact, it probably does harm. Imagine that Israelis were uprooted and the Israel Defense Forces pulled back to the 1967 boundaries — what then? Messrs. Friedman, AbiNader, and Kucinich assume the Palestinian Arabs would be grateful and reward Israel by tending to their own gardens, permitting Israel quietly to go its separate way.

But I expect a quite different reaction: Palestinian Arabs will see a pullback signaling that Israel is weak, appeasing, and vulnerable. Far from showing gratitude, they will make greater demands. With Jenin and Ramallah in the maw, Jerusalem will be next on the agenda, followed by Tel Aviv and Haifa.

And later when Israel swapped prisoners for dead soldiers with Hezbollah, he lamented "Hezbollah's Victory; Israel's Decline." Pipes, in short, believes that Israel will only achieve peace through strength and victory.

I have little patience for conventional wisdom from terror appeasers like Fawaz Gerges:

But if history serves as a guide, no major progress could be achieved in Israeli-Palestinian peace-making without active engagement by the president and his senior aides. The weight of the presidency is vital to a breakthrough there.

Abbas cannot go home empty-handed and negotiate with Hamas and Jihad for a permanent cease-fire. Public opinion polls show clearly that Palestinians do support Hamas and Jihad's armed campaign against Israeli military occupation. Abbas has to convince Palestinian public opinion that his vision and path will ultimately bring peace and independence, not Hamas or Jihad's.

It is crucial that Israel act now to release Palestinian prisoners (who number around 8,000), withdraw its troops from Palestinian cities and towns, and begin to dismantle settlements on the West Bank. A viable peace settlement is the safest way to marginalize Hamas and Jihad and ensure Israeli security in the longer term.

Actually most progress is made without the involvement of the United States. President Bush's hands off approach is far superior to Bill Clinton's active involvement. All that Clinton's involvement meant was that Arafat needed to do nothing but wait for Clinton to pressure Israel. And the success or failure of peace efforts depends less on what Israel does or doesn't do than in a sea change of attitude among the Palestinians.

Secular Blasphemy wonders if good intentions (from a flawed individual) are enough.

That brings us to today's Charles Krauthammer column, "Why the Palestinians Came to the Table."

Arafat's death was a necessary condition for hope, but not a sufficient one. It was necessary because Arafat had the power to suppress and literally kill any chances of peace. But his passing would have meant nothing if it had not occurred at a time when the Palestinians finally realized that Arafat's last great gamble, the second intifada, was a disaster.
The reason history does not always repeat itself is that the interval in between often leaves its mark. The Palestinians know that Arafat's war left them a legacy of death, corruption, misery, international isolation and social ruin as the myriad militias he created roam the streets, terrorizing their own people. That is why they elected Mahmoud Abbas, who campaigned against the intifada.

He gives a lot of credit to the election. He gives credit to the death of Arafat. He also gives credit to Israel's war against the Palestinian terror infrastructure and the security fence.

Completely wrong. In fact, it is precisely Israel's aggressive counterattack against Palestinian terrorists, coupled with the defensive fence (which has prevented practically all suicide attacks wherever it has been built), that has brought us to this point of hope.

(Krauthammer was an "early adopter" of the idea that the fence was a good idea. Even if not everyone agreed.)
Again it is the Palestinian actions or inactions that will prove whether or not this cease fire will work. Abbas has said all the right words, done some of the right actions and he's not Yasser Arafat. He's also clearly not as weak as many suggest. There's a lot more for him to do.

Posted by SoccerDad at February 11, 2005 6:28 AM