Soccer Dad

Can President Bush win Maryland?

On the face of it the answer is an emphatic "NO." Blue (Democratic) states don't get much bluer than Maryland. On the other hand, just two years ago, Congressman Bob Ehrlich defeated Lieutenant Governor Kathleen Kennedy Townsend in the race for Governor.
But then yesterday there was a new poll that in Maryland the candidates are ... tied! 48 - 48. (Survey USA | 9/17-9/19)
Since this poll is out of line with most state polls, it has to be taken with a grain of salt. What shouldn't be ignored is that there are three trends that the President could take advantage of.
1) I've noticed in several places in Montgomery County (usually coming off the Capital Beltway) there are lawn signs proclaiming "Entering a High Tax Zone." Clearly there's some movement of dissatisfaction with the liberal county. If the people in these houses are contacted, perhaps they could be convinced to devote their energies to the Bush campaign too.
2) Ehrlich didn't receive a majority of the Jewish vote, but he received more of it than expected. If Jews in Maryland are becoming more Republican, they should be encouraged. Ehrlich visited a Pikesville bagel shop several times in his campaign. Perhaps he should do the same for Bush.
3) Caspar Taylor the speaker of Maryland's House of Delegates was defeated in his re-election bid two years ago apparently over gun control. Though Kerry doesn't appear to be strident gun controller he's still a Democrat. Perhaps campaigning on Second Amendment rights in Western Maryland would help the President.
If the President wins Maryland it would not be the first time that George Bush beat a Massachusetts liberal in Maryland. It happened in 1988.
UPDATE: Well the MSM is slow as usual. C. Fraser Smith weighs in with "Think Bush can't win Maryland? Think again" Alas, it appears that he's mostly just putting in a claim that if Bush wins he can claim a small amount of prescience as he concludes:

"If this state is "in play" now, it's already a victory for the Maryland GOP. If Mr. Bush wins, it will be a dramatic upset - but it won't be as surprising as Democrats might want to believe. "

I dispute this claim:

The GOP in Maryland is a much stronger political animal than it once was. Voter registration between 2000 and this summer is about even for the two parties, a win for the GOP since Democrats have tended to lead in that important area. Republicans thank their governor for that political muscle.

Most months that I've checked recently, nearly twice as many voters register as Democrats as Republicans in Maryland: The most recent month, for example, is June, 2004. (Overall since 2000, Democrats have outregistered Republicans in Maryland by about 1.6 to 1. That's a rough estimate.
For the years available here are the numbers:
Go to http://www.elections.state.md.us/citizens/registration/activity_reports.html
for 2002 Democrats outregistered Republicans 109350 to 63574
for 2001 Democrats outregistered Republicans 82293 to 49093
for 2001 Democrats outregistered Republicans 148142 to 77865)
I do think that there are trends that favor President Bush in Maryland. Voter registration is not one of them.

Posted by SoccerDad at September 22, 2004 5:35 AM