Soccer Dad

Angelos vs. O'Malley

The controversy over potentially moving the Expos to DC or Northern VA continues to swirl. Last week the Baltimore Sun featured opposing viewpoints. On one side, Donald C. Fry of the Greater Baltimore Committee wrote "Dividing this market would be a costly mistake" The gist of his article is:

There is debate over exactly how many Orioles fans are drawn from Washington and Virginia and whether the O's attendance would decline as much as 20 percent or as little as 5 percent.

Nevertheless, it is clear that Orioles ticket sales would suffer with a team in Washington. In addition to fans in Northern Virginia and Maryland's Montgomery County, the fan base in places such as Bowie, Landover, Columbia and Lexington Park also would be in jeopardy. Baseball fans have limited entertainment dollars. Fans living equal distances between the cities could easily choose to spend those entertainment dollars in Washington and not in Baltimore.

But ticket sales are not the only major revenue source that would be affected. The Orioles' local media revenue would be severely impacted by having two teams in the region.

According to a 2001 analysis by Baseball Prospectus, the Orioles rank 10th in local media revenue, well behind the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox. The Yankees' local media revenue is almost three times the Orioles' revenue.

The Orioles' revenue is derived from radio and television contracts with various Baltimore, suburban Maryland, Washington, Virginia, Pennsylvania and West Virginia media outlets. Despite the geographic size of the market, the Orioles' local media revenue struggles to compete with teams in their own division. To lose perhaps eight or more media outlets to a team less than 40 miles away would be undeniably harmful to the Orioles' ability to be financially competitive in the richest division in baseball.

In response one Donovan Burba wrote "Baseball in Washington" Burba's argument can be boiled down to:

Mr. Angelos has no one to blame but himself for the negative vibes coming up Interstate 95. He's had a monopoly on the baseball market in a region of nearly 8 million people since he bought the team in 1993. Problem is, he manages as though he knows that, signing unstable veterans such as Albert Belle and Will Clark in years past. A well-run team in Washington would further expose Mr. Angelos as a bungler.

I don't know if the signings by themselves are the problem. The problem is that since Angelos bought the team, the team has been bad except for 1994, 1996 and 1997. Angelos started off with the only game in town, by 2000 (and the arrival of the Browns/Ravens) baseball was second place in the hearts of Baltimore sports fans.
Now Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley has weighed in:

In response to a question at his morning news conference, O'Malley said the Washington area has many "die-hard Orioles fans" and that he hoped they would continue to come to Baltimore to support the Orioles. But then O'Malley added: "I'm not opposed to them having a team."

That drew this response from Angelos:

"I think that's typical of someone who never really does know what he's talking about and who is nothing more than a small-time politician aspiring to high political offices, which if he was successful to achieve he simply couldn't execute properly," the owner said Wednesday night.

"Presumably [O'Malley] wants to say something that he believes is harmful to the ownership group, namely me. But what he doesn't realize is that his statements are harmful to the Orioles' franchise, which is a very, very important asset to this community and which generates more than $200 million of economic activity in this city annually."

The truth is that I think they're both right. O'Malley hasn't fulfilled the promise of his potential. After making some initial strides in fighting Baltimore's violence when he became mayor, the murder rate has remained stubbornly high. So Angelos probably isn't far off the mark in his evaluation of O'Malley the politician. But this was meant to be about baseball not politics.
Angelos and Fry talk about the damage that could be done to the Orioles by moving another team too close.
I think that Angelos and his allies overestimate what the Orioles mean to DC. In recent years the Orioles game hasn't always made the front page of the Washington Post's sports section. While I haven't studied this systematically, I don't think that was the case 20 years ago. But after six dismal years, the Post clearly does not show the same interest in the Baltimore team as it did in the 80's. I'm sure that's reflective of its readership.
The other thing to keep in mind is that in the Washinton area the Orioles went from being broadcast on WTOP to WTEM to WTNT. In other words (according recent Arbitron ratings) went from a station with a 3.7 share to a 1.6 share to a .2 share. By this reckoning Orioles games in the DC area reach less than 1/18 of the audience that they used to! Clearly it wasn't a moneymaker for all news WTOP. It wasn't even a money maker for all sports WTEM!
If the Orioles are not providing Mr. Angelos with the profits he thinks he should be making, he needs to look in the mirror. And I don't think that the problem is just in Washington. From 1997 to 2003 the O's attendance went from 45,816 to 30,302: a drop of more than 33%! If a team's no good, not only won't people be as anxious to travel 40 or more miles to see them; even people in their own backyard won't be too anxious either.
One of the key arguments Angelos and co. is that the O's would lose significant broadcasting revenue. I heard Steve Davis on WBAL radio tonight sounding the alarm of the O's not being carried by out of state cable operators anymore. I suspect that as long as there's an interest in the O's those operators will pay for the rights to the O's. But for there to be an interest in the O's, the team will have to be competitive. If there's a team in DC competing for eyeballs the Orioles will have to be better. It's my hope that a team in DC would spur the Orioles to do better.
Since Angelos bought the team, the Orioles have been poorly run and unstable. The only GM to serve more than three years was the disastrous Syd Thrift. The only manager to serve more than two years has been Mike Hargrove. And let's not forget that the Rochester Red Wings severed the longest lived relationship with a major league club because the O's didn't even get good has beens to populate the AAA roster!
Let's see what the young guys can do. Let's see if Beattie and Flanagan can turn things around. Improvement will take time, but if it works its worth it. The O's moves this off-season made them interesting going to the season for the first time in several seasons.
One last note: I work near Silver Spring. At a Target near work I can find Ravens team merchandise. Lots of it. But I rarely see Oriole merchandise. I realize this is only one store, so maybe I shouldn't be generalizing. But it looks to me as if the Orioles either aren't marketing in the Maryland suburbs of DC or have stopped because there's no interest. Either scenario suggests that the Orioles are not nearly as popular in areas surrounding DC as club officials might claim. Producing a winning team would turn that around.

Posted by SoccerDad at July 1, 2004 3:16 AM