Soccer Dad

Sosa Ho Hum

David Pinto thinks that the Orioles are getting a good deal for taking Sammy Sosa off the Cubs' hands:

Hairston or Julio (or both with Farnsworth going to the Orioles as well), this deal is a give away. The Cubs are basically paying the Orioles to take Sosa off their hands. I wonder why more clubs aren't jumping in? According to the numbers in the article, it looks like a club can have Sosa for a marginal major leaguer, two prospospects and $17 million dollars in salary for two seasons. The upside is that Sosa hits 80 HR with a .360 OBA over two seasons and you get to promote Sammy chasing 600 HR, then Mays, then 700 if you decide to keep him. The downside is that you get 30 HR this year and 25 the next with more injuries and declining skills.

However he quotes a cautionary observation by Peter Schmuck:

There is a precedent. Former Cleveland Indians and Chicago White Sox slugger Albert Belle was caught with a corked bat back in the 1990s, and look where he ended up in the twilight of his career.

Sorry I brought that up.

I have a different nightmare. Recall that last year's biggest name to switch teams was Curt Schilling. Consider further that one of the biggest names to switch teams for the stretch run and subsequently to sign as a free agent this off season was Steve Finley. And, do you see where I'm headed? Read the beginning of Schmuck's column:

The Orioles definitely needed to do something to re-energize their fan base. The failed attempt to sign Carl Pavano early in the offseason set the tone for a winter of discontent that was threatening to undo much of the progress that was made last year with the acquisition of popular Miguel Tejada and the continuing development of several bright young pitching prospects.

Or Thomas Boswell's recent comparison between the Nationals and Orioles that found the O's wanting:

With spring training less than three weeks away, the Orioles are flat on their backs. Despite having two co-general managers and a wealthy owner, the Birds have been completely shut out from any moves of consequence. On Tuesday, Carlos Delgado joined Carl Pavano and Richie Sexson on the list of players who have said no to Baltimore bids.

Yes the Orioles need to make the Sosa trade for their credibility. That, frankly is the worst reason to make a trade. This may turn out well for the Orioles. And I don't think that they gave up anyone whose absence will be regretted long term.
What am I referring to? The deal that Thomas Boswell wrote was "BEST DEAL SINCE FRANK ROBINSON ARRIVED". (January 11, 1991, Washington Post) Yes, the one in which they acquired Glenn Davis. Let's revisit Boswell's now embarrassing words from fourteen years ago. (Pardon me for dumping on Boswell. He is one of the best baseball writers around - though his recent hankering for baseball in DC has become tiresome)

"Thrilled . . . excited . . . really happy," were the bubbly words used by GM Roland Hemond and Manager Frank Robinson after the Orioles acquired one of baseball's best cleanup hitters, Glenn Davis, from the Houston Astros for Pete Harnisch, Curt Schilling and Steve Finley Thursday.

Evaluation: the best trade for the Orioles since they got Frank Robinson.

Hemond even draws the parallel comparison himself: "A bona fide cleanup man in a lineup makes a vast difference. I think you saw a guy show up in town in 1966 and make a big difference."

Glenn Davis isn't terribly famous -- unless you're a major league baseball player. Then the name pops eyebrows. Will Clark simply calls him the best power hitter in the National League. In a nutshell, think of him this way. He's Storm Davis's stepbrother with the same social conscience and self-discipline. On the field, he has, for six years, played first base and hit like the young Eddie Murray. And he's done it in the Astrodome. Nobody knows what he might do in a sensible hitter's ballpark.ne injury (last year) and averaged 31 homers and 96 RBI in his four full years from '86 through '89.

Most important, the Orioles got him without giving up anybody they can't replace immediately from within their own roster or farm system. That's why you build an entire deep organization. The Astros were holding a cut-the-payroll discount sale (as owner John McMullen tries to sell the team), and the Orioles stepped in. They had more decent young players to offer than any other team. Any team would want a Davis, but only the California Angels, offering Wally Joyner, plus others, could compete.

Of the three players that the O's gave up only Pete Harnisch is not still playing. Still he probably contributed more to his teams than Glenn Davis contributed to Baltimore in his 3 years. (And remember that the O's traded Mickey Tettleton too that off-season for non-entity Jeff Robinson.) If the O's had kept Harnisch, Finley Schilling and Tettleton and left Milligan at first, they would not have had the buzz that year, but they would have been better off in subsequent years.
I expect that a Sosa deal won't turn out as badly for the O's because I don't think that they gave up as much and, unless Sosa comes down with some sort of crippling injury, Sosa will do better than Davis did. But I get the feeling that the O's did this because they felt that they had to.
Let's go back to David Pinto's "Baseball Musings" again. The previous post David had a table of the "Probabilistic Model of Range." According to this method of evaluation the Orioles fielders allowed roughly 31 more balls to get through than they should have. Oriole pitchers, as a group, allowed the second highest OBA in the AL last year. (Along with the lowest SLG allowed.) Yet this off season the O's made no effort to address the defensive problems.
The Moneyball approach isn't just about OPS, it's about using different metrics to identify weaknesses and shore up your team by correcting those weaknesses. It does not appear that the O's have done that all. They may score a few more runs, but they may never get an idea how good their young pitchers might be because there is a porous defense behind them. And they make a deal based largely on maintaining their credibility as opposed to filling a need.

Posted by SoccerDad at January 29, 2005 10:10 PM | TrackBack