Soccer Dad

Sports Predicts Politics?

So can we rely on the World Series to determine who will be the next president of the United States? Maybe:

There are only minor trends toward US presidential predictions based upon the 24 elections conducted in the same year as a World Series.

Republicans have been elected on nine of the 16 occasions in which an American League champion has won the Series, something for Bush to celebrate if his rival's beloved AL champion Red Sox claim the crown.

Democrats have won the White House in five of eight times when the National League winners capture the Series, a fact that might be some small consolation for Kerry if the Cardinals rally to deny the Red Sox yet again.

There is one good omen for the Red Sox. AL winners have won three titles in a row during election years - Toronto in 1992 when Bill Clinton (news - web sites) was elected and the New York Yankees in 1996 for Clinton's re-election and in 2000 for Bush's controversial victory.

So with the American League's Red Sox taking the World Series it suggests a Bush victory next week.

However maybe there's a different trend at work: The Redskins:

This election season, Washington Redskins cornerback Fred Smoot has a predicament: For Kerry to win, the Redskins have to lose on Sunday — at least according to a bizarre statistical correlation that's been accurate for seven decades.

"We've got to win this game no doubt, but I'm hoping John Kerry (news - web sites) can kind of reverse the curse," Smoot said. "I'm wishing him luck, man. This is the millennium for all trends to be broken."

Since the Redskins became the Redskins in 1933, the result of the team's final home game before the presidential election has correctly predicted the White House winner. If the Redskins win, the incumbent party wins. If they lose, the incumbent party is ousted.

I guess I'll be rooting for the Redskins this week :-)
Actually these are every bit as silly as Jay Leno's silly unscientific contests to determine who will win the election. Still I'm not convinced that "scientific" polls are really helping us understand who will be the next president either.

Posted by SoccerDad at October 28, 2004 02:39 PM | TrackBack