Soccer Dad

The Jewish Vote

Part of me was proud earlier this year when Sen Joe Lieberman insisted that the Democratic debate in South Carolina start late enough on a Saturday night so that he could participate. Lieberman stood up for is religion.
Part of me was disappointed. I wished that he had decline to debate at all. I wanted him to say that he wouldn't share the stage with the Rev Al Sharpton, for Sharpton's actions had revealed him as an antisemite. Of course Lieberman did no such thing.
Joel Engel author of "From Me to Jews" in the Weekly Standard, is similarly bothered:

Even before Al Sharpton stood as a presidential candidate last year, Democratic politicians genuflecting for black votes--Al Gore, Bill Bradley, and Hillary Clinton, for example--often trekked up to Harlem to kiss his ring. And yet, this was a man who in previous years had either led or instigated two anti-Jewish demonstrations, one in Crown Heights and one in Harlem, which together resulted in the deaths of eight people. Does that matter to Democrats and John Kerry? Apparently not. Sharpton was rewarded with a choice slot at the Democratic National Convention, something that is impossible to imagine being given to the likes of former Republican David Duke, whose incitements have frankly born far less blood than Sharpton's.

Put aside his disgraceful role in the Tawana Brawley hoax. The fact that Democratic candidate Sharpton never had to answer questions during primary season from either the press or the other contenders about his anti-Semitic statements (to wit: "diamond merchants" whose hands bear "the blood of innocent babies") should tell Jewish Democrats something important about their party. It should tell them that anti-Semites have found safety in numbers.

Engel is mostly right here. The one problem is that Sharpton's role in the Crown Heights rioting started after Yankel Rosenbaum was killed. As much as I'd like to, I can't pin that death on him. For the other seven - those killed at Freddy's - he should have been tried for as an accessory. Surely in Crown Heights Sharpton is guilty of prolonging the riots and engaging in awful antisemitic rhetoric at the funeral of Gavin Cato, but the death of Yankel Rosenbaum is not on his head.
It's true that Jews don't make enough of the problem of antisemitism in the Democratic party, but that doesn't make Engel right on his main point.

"F*** the Jews," Republican James Baker snapped during Bush 41's reign more than a decade ago. "They didn't vote for us anyway."

Right he was. And if only 20 percent of them vote for Bush 43, American Jews won't need James Baker--they'll have done it to themselves.

For a supposedly smart people, we can be awfully stupid.

For me Baker's comment became a self-fulfilling prophecy. I took his hostility to Israel and Jews seriously and in 1992 I voted for Bill Clinton - the only Democrat I voted for for president. (Something I now deeply regret.) But I believe he's wrong about the Jewish vote. The percentage of the Jewish vote going to President Bush will be higher this year than 20. My guess is between 30 and 40.
Inbred biases are hard to overcome. But this one is slowly fading.
William Safire is similarly bothered. In "Arab and Jewish Votes" he writes:

Jewish American voters who differ with their Arab and Muslim compatriots, one might logically conclude, would seriously consider supporting the candidate who many Israelis believe has been their best friend in the White House.

But such logic is misleading. Four years ago, candidate Bush received 20 percent of the "Jewish vote," about halfway between the low point for a Republican candidate (5 percent for Goldwater) and the high point (39 percent for Reagan). Today, it appears that Bush is getting only slightly more than the 20 percent of last time.

Despite the fact that this president has firmly backed Israel's vigorous self-defense - and time and again vetoed or denounced lopsided U.N. votes to ostracize Israel - 8 out of 10 Jewish American voters will still vote as a bloc to oust him.

As with Engel, what proof does he have that only 20% of Jewish voters will vote for the President? The only poll I'm aware of is one that was this one:

Three years of extraordinarily close relations with Israel, tough talk toward the Palestinians and historic decisions favoring the Jewish state have done virtually nothing to build support for President Bush among U.S. Jewish voters, according to new data from a Democratic pollster.
Likely U.S. Jewish voters favor Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) over Bush by 75 percent to 22 percent in the coming presidential election, according to a poll published Monday by the National Jewish Democratic Council.

With a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points, that’s a statistical tie with the 19 percent Bush scored among Jewish voters in the 2000 elections, according to exit polls at the time — and bad news for Republicans scrambling for Jewish voters in key swing states like Florida.

“There’s been literally no progress in outreach to the Jewish community on the part of the Bush administration and the Bush campaign,” said Anna Greenberg of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, a firm with ties to the Democratic Party. The firm carried out the poll of 817 respondents from July 26-28.

As is noted later in the article, this was a Democratic pollster. I believe there were probably biases built into to the sample.
Perhaps I'm living in my own little cocoon. Where I live, in the Orthodox Jewish section of Baltimore, I believe that the President has very strong (but not unanimous) support. Rumors have it that 80-90 percent of us voted for Republican Gov Ehrlich. I've heard - though I haven't confirmed it - statewide about 30-40 percent of all Jews voted for Ehrlich two years ago. That's not a majority, but it's a sign that Jews are changing.
Part of that is that Orthodox Jews are Republican or have more conservative political leanings. The other part is that the Jews are changing as a group. Both Engel and Safire are being much too negative. They'll both be pleasantly surprised when they wake up next Wednesday morning.
UPDATE: Peter Beinart wrote an interesting column "The End Of the 'Jewish Vote'" His argument is that the Jewish vote is not really monlithic anymore.

This year, for probably the first time, Orthodox Jews will vote like "traditionalist" Christians. Conservative, Reform and non-affiliated Jews, on the other hand, will vote like secular, or "modernist," Christians. And the Jewish vote, in a meaningful sense, will cease to exist.

In other words, Jews aren't becoming more conservative or Republican, only a small segment of them are. It's a clever use of words, I suppose, but it seems just another way of saying that Jews have realigned. Maybe the realignment is limited, and we'll never find 80% of American Jews voting Republican. But it may well be that we won't see the Jewish vote dropping 30% Republican.
Still I have some problems with what he wrote:

Some commentators speculated that his strong support for Ariel Sharon would win over Jewish voters. Actually, it has divided them. Orthodox Jews are far more likely to vote on Israel than other Jews. According to a recent American Jewish Committee survey, 74 percent of Orthodox Jews feel "very close" to Israel, compared with only 31 percent of Jews overall. And Orthodox Jews are also more likely to oppose dismantling settlements, which puts them more in sync with Bush and Sharon's hard-line policies.

For one thing here he's suggesting that Orthodox Jewish voters are largely one issue voters. I find it offensive. Sure Israel's important but there are many other issues too. If I agreed with Bush on every issue but Israel would I still vote him? Probably.
And while I am skeptical that dismantling settlement will help bring peace any closer, there's no evidence that President Bush feels the same way.
Beinart concludes:

Don't expect this to have a dramatic impact at the polls. Orthodox Jews make up less than 10 percent of the American Jewish population, so even though they will probably vote overwhelmingly for President Bush, he will still overwhelmingly lose the Jewish vote as a whole.

As I noted above Ehrlich reportedly received 30-40 percent of the Jewish vote. The Orthodox component of the vote does not account for all of that. I disagree with Beinart. Jews are starting to vote their interests more. And that means running away from the party of antisemites. It means voting for the party that doesn't believe that every problem can be solved by spending more. And yes it means supporting the party that is more likely to support Israel defending itself without criticism.
Part of what I think Beinart is doing is issuing an apology for Jews who are not enlightened like he is. He's saying, my friends and I are right-thinking people, please don't associate me with those single minded Orthodox Jews. And I think he will find that he is wrong next Wednesday morning.

Posted by SoccerDad at October 27, 2004 05:35 AM | TrackBack