Soccer Dad

Expert for Hire

When Israel killed Sheikh Ahmed Yassin there were plenty of experts who said that this would hurt Israel. The Washington Post featured two "experts" in it's Live Online. There was Henry Siegman who wrote:

Israel always took its war against terrorism seriously. The problem is that it did not always pursue it wisely. The question is not whether Yassin deserved what he got, but whether Sharon's targeted assassinations make Israelis more or less secure, and whether it brings an end to the conflict closer or makes it even more distant. It is perfectly legitimate, indeed necessary, for Israel to fight terrorism. But it is an entirely futile struggle, as the past three and a half years have shown, if that struggle is not pursued within a political framework that holds out the prospect of viable Palestinian statehood for the Palestinians if they act to stop the terror.

Fawaz Gerges wrote:

If history serves as a guide, the reaction of Palestinians will be bloody indeed. For example, in March 1996, Israeli assassinated Hamas' chief bomb maker, Yahya Ayyash, who was held responsible for the death of dozens of Israelis. Initilaly, Israeli security services boasted about the success of their assassination operation, yet Hamas subsequently retaliated with a wave of suicide bombings, which killed 62 Israelis and injured many others, and terrorized Israeli society.

If Hamas retaliated so brutally to avenge the killing of one of its famous engineers, one can imagine the extent and nature of its response to the assassination of its spiritual leader. Hamas' officials have already promised to avenge his death by killing hundreds of Israelis.

Well I wrote, at the time:

I don't know if Israel is likely to be struck by a new wave or terror or not. My guess is that it won't happen soon, because Yassin was a central figure in Hamas. Even the Israeli observation that there were fewer demonstrations than expected suggests that Israel picked the correct target. The naysayers have the burden of proof.

Guess what Arieh O'Sullivan just reported last week:

Security officials say that in the first months of this year there has been a steady rise in the number of attacks thwarted. According to their statistics, Israel has successfully intercepted and prevented 60 suicide attacks so far this year.
Most of these were planned by Tanzim terrorists and not Hamas. Intelligence from interrogations of detained Palestinians is key to thwarting attacks.
According to security sources, Hamas in the West Bank where most of the suicide attacks have been launched has been badly hit. Cells there have not been able to stage a suicide attack in Israel since the bombings at Jerusalem's Caf Hillel and a bus stop near the Tzrifin army base on September 9, 2003.

Seeing how my prediction was correct, I am willing to offer my services in the place of "experts" such as Siegman and Gerges.
Crossposted on Israpundit and Soccer Dad.

Posted by SoccerDad at June 11, 2004 04:46 PM | TrackBack